Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies with a pair of plays from the Bundesliga and Switzerland this weekend.
A split weekend last time out for Mark O’Haire, and he’s back again, hoping to go one better…
The Bundesliga – Europe’s highest-scoring major league – has been great fun to follow in the embryonic stages of the season. Germany’s top-flight is averaging a huge 3.64 goals per-game with 73% of encounters beating the Over 2.5 Goals line, 53% of fixtures featuring four strikes or more and 64% of outings seeing both sides oblige.
Two of the chief protagonists now go head-to-head as newly-promoted Heidenheim host Union Berlin at the Voith-Arena on Saturday.
Collectively, the duo has seen Over 2.5 Goals click in eight of their 10 combined encounters, with seven of those showdowns also banking in the Both Teams To Score column as neither side has yet managed a clean sheet.
Bundesliga debutants Heidenheim are W1-D1-L3 after five rounds of action, shipping 13 goals and conceding multiple strikes to all five of their opponents.
In fact, all five opponents generated an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 2.00 or above, and on four occasions Frank Schmidt’s side allowed an xG total of 2.95 xG or greater.
Despite those desperate defensive numbers, FCH have managed to score in four of their opening five fixtures, notching twice or more in three of those matches.
Impressively, Heidenheim have also delivered an xG figure greater than 2.00 in three of those five outings, with home encounters ending in 3-2 and 4-2 thrillers.
Having bagged on the road at Leverkusen last time out, and after striking twice against Dortmund already this tern, Heidenheim will fancy their chances at their Baden-Württemberg base against an Union outfit that are struggling to find last season’s form.
Union kicked-off their campaign with back-to-back 4-1 triumphs, yet the capital club have since sunk to three successive Bundesliga defeats, shipping multiple goals in each.
Urs Fischer’s group have kept only five shutouts in 19 away days going back to the beginning of 2022/23, and so the Champions League contestants could be vulnerable this weekend.
The obvious angle to take is to cheer on goals again with Over 2.5 Goals paying an attractive 1.83.
Both sides are well capable of playing their part in an entertaining encounter, especially Heidenheim, who’ve seen their first five top-flight matches produce an average xG output of 4.73 xG per-game.
My numbers make Over 2.5 Goals a sub 1.70 shot.
Switzerland’s top-tier is renowned for its high-scoring nature and the 2023/24 Super League season has already made an eye-catching start.
Eight rounds into the campaign, the division boasts a 3.23 goals per-game average – 68% of matches have covered the Over 2.5 Goals mark with a huge 77% of showdowns seeing Both Teams To Score click.
Mid-table pair Winterthur and Lugano have been key contributors to those tallies, so their Saturday clash promises plenty.
Over 2.5 Goals holds plenty of appeal at 1.75 considering it’s already proven a profitable formula in 12 of the duos combined 15 fixtures – those games collectively averaging a bulbous 4.06 goals per-game.
Winterthur are unbeaten in five (W3-D2-L0) and played out an enjoyable 2-2 draw in midweek.
The hosts haven’t failed to score since the opening weekend with FCW even striking twice or more in six of their following seven outings; only two teams are boasting a better Expected Goals (xG) output than Patrick Rahmen’s gung-ho group.
However, Winterthur are also far from reliable at the back.
Without a clean sheet since their campaign curtain-raiser, the north-east club have conceded multiple goals in four of seven, whilst BTTS has clicked in seven of eight encounters overall.
Visitors Lugano can call upon a 100% home record, although the Bianconeri have been beaten in each of their last three away days, leaking 10 goals.
Mattia Croci-Torti’s team have seen Overs hit in all of their last five across all venues, as well as six of seven overall, with the three-time champions finding the back of the net themselves in six of those seven.
With the two teams providing plenty of punch in the final third, and neither side managing to keep their sheets clean since July, another goal-heavy game could be in the offing from Switzerland so I’m eager to support Over 2.5 Goals again at a very reasonable 1.75.
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