Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies for the weekend ahead with a pair of plays from Ligue 1 and the Eliteserien this weekend.
EXCITING ENCOUNTER IN ALSACE
Despite last weekend’s blowout backing Both Teams To Score in Montpellier’s match-up with Rennes, I’m still keen to get involved in the same market again this weekend in Ligue 1.
The division is averaging an eye-catching 2.80 goals per-game with 58% of fixtures paying-out for BTTS backers – that hit-rate implies blanket odds around 8/11 (1.72).
However, 4/5 (1.80) is available when struggling Strasbourg welcome Lyon to the Stade de la Meinau on Friday night in a vital fixture for both. Despite back-to-back victories, Le Racing only remain outside the bottom-four on goal difference, whilst Lyon’s loss against Marseille last time out has left Les Gones six points off European qualification.
We’re almost reaching must-win territory as the campaign turns for home – goals per-game outputs in each league tend to increase towards the end of the season – and here we have two sides with plenty to play for going head-to-head.
Chuck in a pair of prolific forward lines alongside dodgy defences, and arguably we have the perfect blend for a goal-heavy game.
Strasbourg are recovering from a nightmare campaign and owe a lot to the resurgence of hitman Habib Diallo.
The former Metz marksman has now scored 13 goals in his past 17 outings – whilst the experienced Kevin Gameiro is also well-capable of contributing in the final-third for the Alsace outfit; indeed, Le Racing have scored in 26/32 (81%) overall.
Yet Strasbourg have also been blighted by a below-par rearguard.
Le Racing have shutout only five Ligue 1 sides – only Troyes have a worse clean sheet return – and that’s an obvious weakness that looks likely to be exposed when facing a Lyon side that’s notched in 12 of their past 14, as well as 13 of 16 away days.
However, Les Gones have conceded goals at scrappers Troyes, Auxerre and Angers since February and so with the duo each displaying plenty of final-third intent, and simultaneously struggling to keep the back door shut, the opportunity to support Both Teams To Score at an attractive price stands out.
Our proposed selection has already banked in 69% of Strasbourg’s home showdowns, as well as 69% of Lyon’s games as guests.
Though the 4/5 (1.80) available implies we’ve just a 56% chance of being paid, thus giving us a nice value angle of attack for Friday night.
BODO BACKED TO EXTEND WINNING STREAK
Bodo/Glimt fell 18 points shy of Molde last season as the Superlaget failed to successfully defend their maiden Eliteserien titles of 2020 and 2021.
Nevertheless, Kjetil Knutsen’s crew have started their 2023 campaign in ominous form and look nicely-priced to make it four wins from four when newly-promoted Brann arrive at the Aspmyra Stadion on Saturday.
Glimt made history in 2020 when clinching top honours, becoming the first-ever Arctic team to win the Norwegian championship, with Knutsen’s expertise a major factor in their historic success.
Bodo have built a squad with a much smaller budget than many of their major rivals yet continue to churn out hugely impressive displays despite big-money sales.
Following another series of big-name departures over the past 12 months, it was perhaps understandable to see Bodo’s high standards waver last term.
However, the Superlaget are already looking the real deal, generating 6.37 Expected Goals (xG) across their 2-0, 4-0 and 3-0 victories over Sarpsborg, Stabaek and Aalesund to take pole position.
Brann’s stay in the OBOS Ligaen was short and swift. The Bergan outfit dominated the division and have continued their revival with a reasonable W2-D0-L1 return back in the top-flight.
Eirik Horneland has a competent squad at his disposal, well capable of challenging for a top-half finish, although the visitors’ defensive resolve could prove their undoing here.
The visitors have allowed an average of four shots on-target across their first three outings, and conceded five on-target efforts when going down 2-0 at Odd.
Considering Bodo have already fired in 56 attempts at goal, it’s hard to see how Brann have the ability within the rearguard ranks to keep a rampant Glimt forward line quiet here.
We can back Bodo to overcome a -0.50 Asian Handicap hurdle at 4/5 (1.80) quotes – the hosts have W44-D14-L3 at their Aspmyra Stadion base in Eliteserien action since the start of 2019 (a 72% win rate), and Glimt have only been available at a bigger pre-match price in three of their last 54 home league dates with average odds of 1.43 in the same sample.
- Both Teams To Score in Strasbourg vs Lyon – 1 unit @ 1.80
- Bodo/Glimt -0.5 Asian Handicap in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann – 1 unit @ 1.80
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