Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays from the Bundesliga and Serie A this weekend.
The Bundesliga – Europe’s highest-scoring major league – has been great fun to follow in the embryonic stages of the season.
Germany’s top-flight is averaging a huge 3.83 goals per-game with 78% of encounters beating the Over 2.5 Goals line, 58% of fixtures featuring four strikes or more and 69% of outings seeing both sides oblige.
Two of the chief protagonists now go head-to-head as winless pair Augsburg and Stuttgart cross swords on Saturday.
Collectively, the duo have seen Over 3.5 Goals click in six of their eight combined encounters, with six of those showdowns also banking in the Both Teams To Score column. Neither side has managed to keep their sheets clean as yet.
Despite those eye-catching figures, Over 2.5 Goals is available to support around the 1.75 mark, a straightforward selection for the portfolio with longer-term numbers also very much in our favour.
Augsburg’s opening home contests have concluded in 2-2 and 4-4 draws. The Fuggerstädter have notched in 15 of their past 19 Bundesliga games at their WWK Arena base, recording only five shutouts in the process.
Meanwhile, rock-bottom Mainz have already suffered chastening 4-0 and 4-1 defeats on their travels this term. Under-pressure Bo Svensson has seen his group score in 15 of their 19 away days since the start of last season, but have kept their sheets clean on only three occasions.
I don’t expect either side to take a backward step – the duo will each be eager to end their winless streaks.
However, the two teams have conceded 12 goals apiece across their first four fixtures, and so neither can be trusted defensively in what’s expected to be a front-foot clash. That should marry up nicely for a goals-based bet with Over 2.5 Goals standing out.
Juventus endured a dark summer. The Bianconeri were given a ban from European football this season by UEFA following an FFP violation and Max Allegri’s men were hamstrung in the transfer market, leaving little for supporters to be positive about coming into the new campaign.
But after four rounds of Serie A action, the mood has decidedly changed in Turin with the Old Lady impressing in the early stages (W3-D1-L0).
Juventus have scored at least twice in three of those four fixtures, conceding just twice, and put in an uncompromising display last weekend to see off Lazio comfortably at the Allianz Stadium.
The welcome return to form of Serbian striker Dusan Vlahovic has also given the group a much-needed edge in attack.
Following a poor output last season, the forward was heavily linked with a move away over the summer. Having decided to stay in Turin, the former Fiorentina hitman has bagged four goals already – half of last season’s total.
Federico Chiesa is also looking fit and fresh following a positive pre-season and is thriving in his new role alongside Vlahovic in Allegri’s favoured 3-5-2 – the Azzurri international has bagged three goals of his own and the prolific pair have the potential to do some real damage this weekend when Juve travel to lowly Sassuolo.
Sassuolo capitulated last weekend against Frosinone, throwing away a two-goal lead to lose 4-2.
It was the Neroverdi’s third defeat in four, shipping multiple goals on each occasion as all three losses arrived by a two-goal margin.
Underlying performance data also points to Alessio Dionisi’s outfit struggling in Saturday’s showdown.
The hosts are already ranked inside the bottom-three for Expected Goals (xG) ratio with no Serie A side conceding a higher total than Sassuolo’s per-game average of 2.08.
In contrast, Juventus boast the best xGA in the division with only Inter bettering their 1.94 xG output through the first four rounds of action.
With Juventus meaning business and benefitting from a midweek without European commitments, I’m happy to support the Old Lady to come out on top at the Mapei Stadium at 1.88 quotes.
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