Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Bundesliga and La Liga this weekend.
The regular Bundesliga season comes to a close on Saturday and there’s a fascinating final day in store at the bottom of the division. For the first time in Bundesliga history, the bottom three teams are level on points going into MD34 – the bottom-two sides suffer immediate demotion with the third entering the play-offs, setting up a thrilling finale.
What makes this relegation battle even more enthralling is, two of those aforementioned three clubs, face-off against each other as St Pauli welcome Wolfsburg. Elsewhere, Heidenheim host Mainz and just three goals separate the trio of teams, though our focus will be on the latter fixture as Heidenheim bid to pull off an incredible Great Escape.
Apparently doomed to the drop for the vast majority of the campaign – even as recently as MD30, FCH were eight points from safety – Frank Schmidt’s underdogs have displayed remarkable spirit, battle and motivation to claw their way back into survival contention.
Heidenheim have returned W3-D3-L1 in their last seven showdowns, picking up seven points from their most recent four fixtures to give themselves a shot at staying up. And it could have been even better had Bayern Munich not equalised in the 10th minute of additional time on their trip to the Allianz Arena a fortnight ago…
Recently, Schmidt said, “Let’s be honest. What do we have left to lose? Absolutely nothing.” His team have approached the final furlong with a fearless attitude and are approaching each game with reckless abandon, particularly in attack where the Baden-Württemberg boys have now scored multiple goals in eight of 11, notching 3+ in four of seven.
That aggressive, attacking style is working wonderfully well for FCH, particularly as the hosts have still managed only one clean sheet all season – at home to St Pauli, the worst offence in the Bundesliga. So we shouldn’t expect Heidenheim to change tact now when they welcome a Mainz side that’s safely ensconced in mid-table.
Mainz arrive with only three shutouts of their own across the season, only one of which arrived on the road. However, the O-Fivers have scored in 12 of 16 away days and come into this clash following 3-4, 2-1 and 1-3 results. On their travels, the visitors have seen 11 of 16 fixtures feature 3+ goals with the same hit-rate occurring for BTTS backers.
So whilst Heidenheim are favoured, and with the home side chasing goals to close the goal difference gap, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Mainz contribute to a goal-filled game. After all, MD34 tends to escalate in the Bundesliga with the past 10 seasons averaging 3.66 goals per-game with 52% of matches seeing 4+ strikes and 72% delivering BTTS winners.
The La Liga relegation battle is astonishingly tight ahead of the final two matchdays – just five points separate eighth from 19th with the second-bottom side sitting on a remarkably high 39 points. In midweek, 12 teams were still not mathematically safe from the drop and two of the teams right in the mire meet this weekend as Levante host Mallorca.
Levante are aiming to pull off their own version of the Great Escape. Los Granotes were bottom at Christmas having won twice in 16 – by the end of February they were one place off the bottom but seven points from safety. But slowly, Luis Castro has energised his side, and the Valencia club have enjoyed an exceptional resurgence over the past three months.
Incredibly, in the 11 La Liga matches since the end of February, only Barcelona have earned more league points than Levante (W6-D3-L2). That includes back-to-back 3-2 wins from behind, the most recent of which was achieved at high-flying Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, 18 (41%) of their 44-goal total this term has arrived in that same 11-game sample.
Visitors Mallorca have also found a new gear following the arrival of Martin Demichellis as head coach. The former Argentina centre-half has posted W4-D2-L3 in-charge of the Los Piratas, though the majority of their best work is achieved on the island – the away team have now lost 13 of 18 away days following a 3-1 reverse at Getafe on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, this team is capable in the final-third and regularly concedes. Mallorca have managed only five clean sheets across the campaign – eight of their last 10 have seen BTTS land. Meanwhile, Levante have been involved in plenty of high-scoring contests of late – six of 10 have seen BTTS bank with four of those fixtures producing Over 3.5 Goals profit.
With the two teams locked on 39 points – both will be aware of the importance of picking up a positive result here and recent evidence suggests this won’t be your usual safety-first six-pointer. Expect the two teams to come out firing in what has the potential to be a very exciting and entertaining shootout at the Estadi Ciutat de València.
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
