Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is back with a summer edition of his insights column, with a pair of plays from the Americas this weekend.
FADE FATIGUED & UNDERMANNED TORONTO
New England Revolution are enjoying a fine MLS season thus far. Bruce Arena’s boys are third in the overall rankings having W9-D6-L3 across their opening 18 encounters with only four sides scoring more goals than their tally of 31.
The Revs have proven particularly prolific at their Greater Boston base in Foxborough with the Massachusetts men boasting an impressive W6-D3-L0 return at the Gillette Stadium.
New England return to their fortress base on Saturday night after a free midweek and look good value 1.80 shots to overcome a -0.50 Asian Handicap start against Toronto FC.
Whilst Revolution had their feet up on Wednesday night, Toronto suffered a chastening 3-0 reverse at table-toppers Cincinnati, leaving the Canadians second-bottom in the Eastern Conference (W3-D10-L6), and still searching for their first away victory of the season (W0-D4-L5).
Toronto now face a second successive away day with minimum opportunity to rest, recover and prepare, whilst the visitors are also hampered by the loss of four players to international duty with the CONCACAF Gold Cup starting imminently.
In contrast, New England are only missing defender DeJuan Jones for this encounter.
With Toronto sitting inside the bottom-four of all 29 MLS sides for Expected Goals (xG) ratio over the most recent 12 tussles, as well as second-bottom when viewing the same metric for away games.
Factoring in the rest advantage in favour of New England, I’m more than happy to support the Revs at the available prices this weekend.
New England are averaging an excellent 1.95 xG at Gillette Stadium and have scored at least three goals in four of their past five MLS matches.
COLON TO COME UP SHORT
Argentina’s elongated Liga Profesional championship is 20 rounds deep with Rosario Central enjoying a top-six position thanks largely due to their rock-solid home record.
The Canalla have taken top honours just once on their travels thus far but can call upon an eye-catching W8-D2-L0 return when welcoming sides to their Estadio Gigante de Arroyito home.
Miguel Angel Russo’s men are averaging 2.10 goals per-game as hosts – striking twice or more in five of their past six here, whilst shipping just seven goals across their 10 home tussles.
No top-flight team in Argentina can better Rosario’s points return, or goals output, at the Gigante de Arroyito and the Canalla, therefore, command maximum respect here.
So the 2.20 available on Rosario Central overcoming a -0.50 Asian Handicap catches the eye ahead of Sunday night’s showdown with bottom-half opponents Colon.
The defensive Sante Fe side are draw specialists (W4-D11-L5) but their lack of offensive threat could prove their undoing as they search for just a second away success of the campaign.
The Sabalero have fired blanks in six of nine games as guests, with no away team averaging fewer attempts on their travels.
Colon are posting a concerning 37% shot ratio return, have lost the shot count in nine of their past 11 matches across all venues, as well as eight of their nine away dates in 2023, and generated an xG of 1.00 or more only once away.
- New England Revolution -0.50 Asian Handicap in New England Revolution vs Toronto – 1 unit @ 1.80
- Rosario Central -0.50 Asian Handicap in Rosario Central vs Colon – 1 unit @ 2.20
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