Mark O'Haire: I'm taking a midweek trip to Sweden in search of some value

5 min


Norrkoping v Malmo

Malmo made an atrocious start to the defence of their title success in Sweden but have since found their range following the June appointment of Uwe Rosler. The Sky Blues are now unbeaten in 12 (W10-LD2) and have climbed to within eight points of the Allsvenskan summit.

The in-form outfit have suffered a sole reverse in 21 – going down 2-0 at Genk in last week’s Europa League encounter – but recovered to thump Kalmar 4-0 on Sunday. Wednesday night’s guests were 3-0 up before half-time as they scored at least three goals for the fifth successive league fixture.

Only Hammarby have generated a higher Expected Goals figure as we enter the final furlong and this meeting with second-placed Norrkoping could have a big bearing on Malmo’s final-season standings. Lose, and they’ll almost certainly miss out on consecutive league titles. Win, and the race is most definitely on.

I’m anticipating Rosler’s troops to come out on the front foot. The Sky Blues have seen their away league fixtures average 3.18 goals-per-game with 9/11 (82%) paying-out for Over 2.5 Goals backers. Meanwhile, the same selection has provided profit in eight of their past 10 trips to top-six sides.

Remarkably, Over 2.5 Goals is available to support at 1.77 here.

Norrkoping are defending a wonderful W9-D1-L1 home record, and although their three fixtures here against top-six opposition have all resulted in clean sheets for the White-Blue, Jens Gustafsson’s group have overperformed according to the data.

The hosts have conceded four goals fewer than xG suggests would be a fair reflection on their campaign as a whole. And considering Norrkoping have only fired a solitary blank at their Ostgotaporten base this year, the eastern outfit should be expected to at least get on the scoresheet.

Collectively, the two teams have crossed the Over 2.5 Goals whitewash in 15/22 (68%) of their combined home/away contests this term and I’m happy to back the pair putting on another high-scoring show when they lock horns on Wednesday evening.

Norrkoping v Malmo betting

Trelleborgs v Dalkurd

Staying in Sweden, the bottom two teams in the Allsvenskan go head-to-head and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the tussle between Trelleborg and Dalkurd could follow suit and produce goals.

The duo have tabled a paltry six league triumphs between them this term, although visitors Dalkurd (W2-D3-L6) have earned seven more points than their hosts (W0-D2-L7) since the league’s June interval for the World Cup.

Understandably, both are returning pretty horrendous defensive figures and this could be a case of two terrible backlines combining to push us towards another Over 2.5 Goals selection at the same 1.77 price.

Between them, Trelleborg and Dalkurd have kept only two clean sheets in 22 collective home/away encounters with 14/22 (64%) featuring Over 2.5 Goals. A surprising 13/22 (59%) of those games also returned a profit for Both Teams To Score supporters, suggesting they still boast a reasonable offensive threat.

Dig a little deeper, and when meeting teams in 12th or below, the pair have combined for 9/10 (90%) winning Over 2.5 Goals selections, and so I’ll happily board the Overs bus again at the Vangavallen.

Trelleborg v Dalkurd betting

Recommended Bets

  • Norrkoping v Malmo – Over 2.5 Goals (1.77)
  • Trelleborgs v Dalkurd – Over 2.5 Goals (1.77)