Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Ligue 1 and La Liga this weekend.
Lens leading Ligue 1 is one of the stories of the season in European football. Les Sang et Or were beaten in their curtain-raising encounter this season but have since churned out 13 wins from their following 16 fixtures to sit one point clear of the chasing pack and PSG.
Pierre Sage’s posse returned from the winer break with an eye-catching 3-0 success at Toulouse, before making Coupe de France progress with victory at Sochaux by the same scoreline. And now Lens look very difficult to dismiss as they return to their raucous Stade Bollaert-Delelis this weekend against lowly Auxerre.
Many expected Les Sang et Or to undergo a period of transition following a summer of high-profile sales and Will Still’s departure. The club’s president opted to implement a series of austerity measures instead of replacing big-name departures in the transfer window. Sage arrived, repurposed the squad and has enjoyed a remarkable campaign thus far.
On home soil, Lens have won seven on the spin, scoring 16 goals and conceding only three strikes on their own patch. Whereas second-from-bottom Auxerre arrive with 11 league losses in 17, posting W0-D2-L6 on their travels – in those eight away days, the strugglers have managed just four goals and conceded an average of 2.00 goals per-game.
The underlying metrics reflect Auxerre’s treacherous position. The visitors are returning a -0.90 npxG supremacy figure in away outings, meaning they’re giving up almost 1.0 xG per-game more than their opposition on a per-game basis. Auxerre are also allowing an enormous 3.75 Big Chances on average during their road trips this term.
Lens to extend their winning streak is around the 1.50 mark but we can engineer a much more palatable 1.82 by including Under 4.5 Goals into the mix. Just two of the hosts’ 17 showdowns have featured four goals or more, whilst only one has bust the Under 4.5 Goals barrier. Meanwhile, 16 of Auxerre’s 17 outings have produced a maximum of four goals.
Barcelona claimed Super Cup glory in Saudi Arabia last weekend in another bonkers Clasico contest – the 3-2 success included 11 Big Chances and a total xG output of 4.11. Seven of those 11 Big Chances were carved out by Real Madrid, who also racked up 10 shots on-target despite defeat, following a familiar theme in Barca matches this season.
The Madrid victory came hot on the heels of the Blaugrana’s 5-0 thrashing of Athletic Club – Hansi Flick’s group still gave up 1.76 xG on that occasion with the Basques missing three Big Chances. Meanwhile, in Barcelona’s last La Liga contest, goalkeeper Juan Garcia produced an extraordinary MOTM display to deny Espanyol a deserved share of the spoils as Barca’s rearguard was again called into question.
So whilst the Catalans have officially recorded four clean sheets in their last five against top-flight opposition, they are still giving away hordes of opportunities to opposition teams. Indeed, Barcelona have conceded 47 Big Chances in La Liga – the sixth-worst figure – with 33 of that tally arriving in just 10 away days – the second-worst figure in the division.
Going forward, Barca’s ability is unparalleled and Flick has almost all of his big guns available for Sunday’s trip to Real Sociedad. The visitors have scored twice or more in 13 of their 17 away La Liga or Champions League assignments this season and a similar haul should be in the offing at Anoeta. However, La Real are backed to get on the scoresheet in defeat.
The Basques brought in American coach Pellegrino Matarazzo during the winter break and have enjoyed a positive response to that change. La Real had 18 shots (1.73 xG) in a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid, 12 shots (1.56 xG) in a 2-1 success at Getafe before firing in 22 attempts (1.91 xG) during a 2-2 Copa del Rey contest with Osasuna in midweek.
There is more than enough ammunition and invention in the Real Sociedad squad to make their mark against this open Barcelona defence – the underdogs have notched in 13 of their last 14, scored away at Barca back in September and have grabbed at least one goal in 13 of their past 15 head-to-heads here in San Sebastian and so a repeat appeals.
The 2.76 available on Barcelona to win and Both Teams To Score therefore stands out in what should be a thoroughly entertaining Sunday night showdown.
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