Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on League Two and the MLS this weekend.
League Two leaders Gillingham look a solid selection to extend their unbeaten run when they host Harrogate at the Priestfield Stadium on Saturday.
The Gills have been excellent under Gareth Ainsworth, now unbeaten in 21 league games – a new club record – and they’ve carried that consistency into this season, winning six of their first nine matches (W6-D3-L0) and conceding just six goals.
At their Kent base, Gillingham have a posted a perfect four wins from four thus far, conceding a solitary strike and allowing just five Big Chances, highlighting their defensive strength.
Ainsworth’s outfit might not be flashy, but they’re strong, solid, direct and highly effective. That uncompromising style has made them hard to break down and difficult to match physically – and they could well bully a Harrogate side that continues to struggle at the back.
Harrogate did beat Shrewsbury last weekend to halt a four-game losing streak, but their underlying numbers are worrying. The Sulphurites rank second-bottom on Expected Points (xP), second-bottom on non-penalty xG (npxG) ratio, and have allowed the most Big Chances (28) in League Two this term with Town’s data worsening on the road.
Simon Weaver’s side have conceded at least two xG in three of four away days, faced 16+ shots in each (including 61 attempts from inside the penalty area) and allowed 18 Big Chances in games as guests. The aggregate touches in the box count reads 37-146 in the opposition’s favour and that level of defensive vulnerability is unlikely to hold up here
With Gillingham’s consistency, Priestfield dominance, and Harrogate’s glaring rearguard issues, the hosts look very well priced at 1.83 to maintain top spot with another home success.
We covered Charlotte a few weeks ago and I’m happy to go back in the Crown again this weekend as they host struggling Montreal in MLS.
Dean Smith’s side are enjoying an excellent campaign, sitting third in the Eastern Conference and pushing hard to secure a strong play-off position. Despite a stunning run of nine victories from their last 10 MLS matches, Charlotte remain only three points above the wildcard places and so motivation to extend their excellent streak remains high.
At the Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte have been formidable: 12 wins from 15 MLS home dates, scoring at least twice in 11 and keeping eight clean sheets. The Crown have also come out on top in the non-penalty xG (npxG) battle in 10 of those home tussles, underlining just how consistent they’ve been in front of their own fans.
Montreal, by contrast, are rooted to the foot of the Eastern Conference and already out of finals contention. The strugglers have lost 17 of 31 overall, eight of 15 away, and seven of 10 at top-half teams. Their xG numbers are poor too – beaten in 11 of 15 games as guests – and Le CMF arrive off back-to-back 2-0 defeats at home to modest opposition.
Charlotte are understandably short to win, but there’s an eye-catching 2.05 available when combining the home side with Under 4.5 Goals. Both sides have seen 5+ goals in only TWO of their respective 15 home/away games, and this angle covers Charlotte’s most common correct scores at the Bank of America: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 or 3-1.
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