Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his fancies with a pair of goals plays from the Premier League and Bundesliga.
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The Premier League is returning a lofty 3.12 goals per-game average after 16 rounds of action with 60% of those fixtures featuring winning Both Teams To Score wagers.
Turning that percentage hit-rate into implied odds would suggest blanket BTTS odds around the 4/6 (1.66) mark yet often the market offering has been much closer to 1/2 (1.50).
So when Both Teams To Score is offered to us at just shy of 4/5 (1.80), we have to be interested. And arguably even more so when you consider the teams on show…
Both West Ham and Wolves have each recorded 13 BTTS winners from their 16 EPL encounters thus far, a whopping 81% success-rate.
What’s more, the Hammers have recorded a solitary league clean sheet this season – against Sheffield United – with Wolves managing just two shutouts of their own (against Everton and Burnley).
Going forward, West Ham have scored in all bar two of their top-flight tussles, grabbing a goal in 21 of their past 26 London Stadium showdowns since the start of last season.
Meanwhile, Wolves have gotten on the scoresheet in all of their Premier League dates since MD1 (when they really could and should have notched away at Manchester United).
Even the underlying metrics point towards a goal-heavy clash. West Ham’s home outings are averaging a chunky 2.96 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) with Wolves’ road trips hitting 2.79 in the same metric.
Therefore, my model suggests a more accurate Both Teams To Score price would be closer to the aforementioned 1/2 (1.50) – we’re getting 1.78.
The Bundesliga remains the highest-scoring major league in Europe. Despite a slight downturn during the winter months, Germany’s top-flight can still boast a huge 3.42 goals per-game average with 69% of matches featuring Over 2.5 Goals, 47% of games beating the Over 3.5 Goals barrier with Both Teams To Score obliging in 62% of those dates.
Two teams regularly involved in goal-heavy contests now clash on Saturday as basement battlers Bochum and Union Berlin go head-to-head at Vonovia-Ruhrstadion with the market assuming the pair will play out a scrappy and uneventful six-pointer.
The pair are just above the relegation play-off position and within striking range of the bottom-two.
However, I’m happy to swim against the tide here and support goals with Over 2.5 Goals standing out as an odds-against 21/20 (2.06) option.
It’s a wager that’s already won in all nine (64%) of Bochum’s 14 fixtures this season, as well as nine (69%) of Union’s 13 top-flight encounters, with the duo managing only two clean sheets between them thus far.
I’m expecting a proactive approach from the two teams, who should each side this clash as a great opportunity to pick up top honours.
Bochum have bagged six successive Both Teams To Score winners in front of their own supporters this season with that specific wager landing in 70% of their home outings since the start of 2022/23.
Indeed, Bochum have obliged in all bar four of their 23 Vonovia-Ruhrstadion match-ups here since the beginning of last season, although the hosts have kept only four clean sheets in that same sample.
Union haven’t proven quite so fruitful, yet the guests are now under new management and have impressed in their most recent two assignments.
The capital club were worthy 3-1 winners when welcoming Borussia Monchengladbach with Nenad Bjelica’s in charge last weekend and Union gave another solid account of themselves when going down 3-2 at home to a strong Real Madrid side in the Champions League.
A repeat of either display should give us a very good run for our overpriced Over 2.5 option.
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