Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Ligue 1 and La Liga this weekend.
Olympique Lyonnais reignited their Champions League qualification aspirations with an eye-catching victory away Paris Saint-Germain last weekend. The Parc des Princes success against a much-changed and off-colour PSG pushed Paulo Fonseca’s troops into the top-three above Lille on their head-to-head record, though the battle remains intense.
Lyon in third and Monaco in seventh are separated by just four points as we enter the remaining four games of the campaign. Les Gones are still scheduled to face Rennes (5th), as well as unlikely title challengers Lens in their final fixtures, and so the seven-time champions will be aware of the importance of Saturday’s showdown with struggling Auxerre.
Auxerre are occupying the relegation play-off place, sitting four points above the drop-zone and four points away from assured top-flight safety. The visitors have proven a tough nut to crack since February, returning (W2-D7-L2), including picking up a 2-2 draw at Monaco last time out. However, the guests have tended to come unstuck when facing elite opposition.
The point earned against Monaco was only Auxerre’s third in 12 tussles against top-seven teams (W0-D3-L9) with the visitors firing seven blanks in that same sample. Across the full season, Auxerre have been beaten in eight of 15 away days and managed only 0.80 goals per-game, failing to score on eight occasions.
Lyon have silenced three of their past five opponents, won back-to-back league dates and boast a strong W10-D1-L3 record in front of their own supporters. That return includes a perfect six wins from six when entertaining teams in 12th and below with Les Gones recording 10 shutouts in 13 home or away match-ups with the bottom-seven.
Lyon are a nice price to win on the nose, though we can boost the odds to an odds-against offering by including Under 4.5 Goals – just six of their combined Ligue 1 games this term have featured five strikes or more. We’ll therefore be backing Lyon to win 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 or 3-1 – 15 of their 16 victories have arrived alongside Under 4.5 Goals.
A fascinating basement battle is emerging in La Liga. Bottom-feeders Real Oviedo and Levante have finally found form to close the gap on the teams above them, whilst only six points separate Alaves in the final relegation position from Osasuna in 10th. With six rounds of action still to play, there promises to be plenty more twists and turns.
Two of the teams fighting for survival face-off on Saturday as the aforementioned Alaves host Mallorca – the visitors are two points better off than the Vitoria outfit coming into the weekend, putting extra emphasis on their six-pointer showdown. However, this match might not follow traditional relegation scraps with goals appearing underrated.
Alaves have quickly become one of La Liga’s most entertaining teams to follow. El Glorioso have seen eight of their past 12 top-flight matches feature Over 2.5 Goals with 10 of those tussles paying-out for Both Teams To Score backers. An average of 3.58 goals have been scored across that sample since late January with Alaves striking at least twice in 7/12.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have also been embroiled in regular high-scoring contests since the winter break – 12 of the islanders’ last 15 have broken the Over 2.5 Goals barrier, 11 of which saw both sides score with an average of 3.00 goals per-game. The Palma club have scored twice or more in four of six but have managed a solitary shutout in 17.
Considering Alaves have seen 11 of their 15 Mendizorrotza matches pay-out in the BTTS column and Mallorca have seen the same 73% hit-rate occur for Over 2.5 Goals hunters in away days, I’m eager to support the Over 2.5 Goals line ahead of Saturday’s clash.
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