Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the first matchdays in Ligue 1 and La Liga this weekend.
Timing can be everything in betting, and Toulouse may be catching Lyon at exactly the right moment. The hosts are 1.80 with a +0.25 Asian Handicap start, and the attraction has less to do with doubting Lyon’s quality than questioning how much attention they can realistically devote to this game.
Lyon’s Ligue 1 opener has landed directly between two enormous Champions League qualifiers against Fenerbahçe. Tuesday’s first leg in Istanbul finished 1-1, leaving Paulo Fonseca’s side 90 minutes from the league phase when the teams reconvene in Lyon on Wednesday. It is difficult to imagine a domestic fixture being more inconveniently placed.
Champions League qualification is particularly significant for a Lyon side operating with limited financial room. Reaching the league phase would provide a considerable sporting and financial boost, potentially influencing the club’s direction beyond this season.
Wednesday is enormous. Saturday simply isn’t. Fonseca must therefore balance fatigue from Istanbul, another away trip to Toulouse and the risk of losing key players before a season-defining second leg. Rotation is possible, but even with a strong XI there is an obvious danger that Lyon’s focus is elsewhere.
That shouldn’t be confused with negativity about Lyon generally. They finished fourth last season, only one point behind Lille, and have strengthened with Loïs Openda, Mads Bidstrup and Julien Duranville. Fonseca also provides rare continuity in a league where 12 of 18 clubs changed manager this summer.
But we aren’t betting on Lyon over 34 games. We’re betting on them this weekend.
Toulouse are awkward opponents in these circumstances. They finished ninth last season with 45 points and lost only five times at home, while Lyon managed just six away league victories. There is relevant recent evidence too. Toulouse beat Lyon 2-1 here in May, a defeat that helped cost Fonseca’s side third place.
Toulouse have since appointed Jens Berthel Askou and can approach this opener without any European distraction. Another competitive campaign is perfectly realistic and the hosts should be well-capable to exploit the situation by at least taking a share of the spoils.
A Toulouse win lands the +0.25 handicap in full, while a draw produces a half-win. With Lyon caught between two potentially season-defining European nights, I’m happy to oppose the visitors at the prices and get two of the three results onside at 1.8 quotes.
This is one of my favourite goals angles across Europe this weekend. Real Betis and Real Sociedad became two of La Liga’s most dependable Both Teams To Score sides last season, yet we can still get 1.86 about both finding the net on Friday night.
The numbers are exceptional. BTTS landed in 79% of Betis’ league matches and 68% of La Real’s. Crucially, those figures weren’t distorted by a few freakish shootouts. Scoring was routine: Betis found the net in 34 of 38 matches and Sociedad in 33 of 38; put those records together and they blanked just nine times across 76 individual league performances.
Their head-to-head meetings followed the script perfectly. Betis were 3-1 winners and the other encounter ended 2-2. Two meetings, eight goals, both teams scoring twice and there is little reason to expect either attack to suddenly lose its edge.
Betis are coming off an excellent season, finishing fifth on 60 points and qualifying for the Champions League for only the second time in their history. Manuel Pellegrini remains in charge, which provides valuable continuity, while Facundo Bernal’s arrival from Fluminense adds some much-needed athleticism to midfield.
They remain at La Cartuja while the Benito Villamarín is rebuilt, but that didn’t prevent them producing last season. Pellegrini has an established side that knows exactly how it wants to attack and, importantly for this bet, rarely goes quietly.
Real Sociedad might be even more interesting. Pellegrino Matarazzo transformed their season after arriving and ultimately delivered the Copa del Rey. Now comes the intriguing part: how much more can he extract from a young core containing Takefusa Kubo, Orri Óskarsson, Luka Sučić, Beñat Turrientes and Jon Gorrotxategi? Mikel Oyarzabal provides the established reference point after scoring 15 league goals last season.
La Real’s summer has been unusually quiet, with Nayef Aguerd the headline addition, but that isn’t necessarily a negative. This is less a rebuild than a bet on Matarazzo developing what he already has.
Picking a winner between two sides I’m positive about holds little appeal. Trusting them to do what they did relentlessly last season makes far more sense. Betis score. Sociedad score. Neither was particularly convincing at stopping the opposition doing likewise.
Last season’s evidence suggest 1.86 is a price worth taking – and the two most recent meetings producing 3-1 and 2-2 outcomes provides a pretty useful blueprint for what we’re hoping to see again on Friday night.
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