Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Championship play-off final, as well as the final weekend of La Liga.
OPPOSE GOALS AT WEMBLEY
Southampton’s expulsion from the Championship play-offs over the ‘spygate’ scandal has dominated the news this week. Middlesbrough were reinstated after a bombshell verdict from an independent commission on Tuesday with Boro now preparing to face Hull in Saturday’s showpiece Wembley finale in what’s often dubbed the “World’s Richest Game.”
At the time of writing, Southampton have lodged an appeal to the commission’s findings and will be fighting the decision. The EFL has acknowledged that the appeal’s outcome “could result in a further change to Saturday’s fixture” though my betting approach to the final is unlikely to alter regardless of the teams on show, or the kick-off time.
That’s because opposing goals has become a tried-and-tested system from over two decades of play-off final data with the magnitude of the match often ensuring a tight, cagey contest. The occasion can cripple some clubs, inspire others – a moment of magic or a big mistake can prove decisive and high-scoring shootouts rarely play out.
It’s now 28 years since the famous 4-4 fixture between Sunderland and Charlton – in the following 27 seasons, 17 (63%) play-off finals have featured Under 2.5 Goals with 14 of those renewals concluding with a maximum of one goal (including eight of the most recent 13). It’s true too, just six of the past 25 second-tier finals saw both sides score.
Ordinarily, the market is all over these long-term trends with prices reflecting the likelihood of a low-scoring clash. However, this season we’re being offered eye-catching quotes on Under 2.5 Goals, as well as BTTS No, despite the long-term success-rate in both markets.
All four of the Championship play-off semi-finals produced Under 2.5 Goals with Hull and Middlesbrough conceding a solitary strike in 90 minutes over their two legs each. The most recent meeting between the sides ended with a solitary strike and a similar outcome could well be on the cards come Saturday evening. I’ll blindly oppose goals here at nice prices.
- Hull vs Middlesbrough – Under 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.87
- Hull vs Middlesbrough – Both Teams To Score – No – 1 unit @ 2.06
GOALS FANCIED AT GETAFE
It’s MD38 of La Liga with European positions still be decided, plus there are two relegation places to be confirmed with five sides separated by three points between 15th and 19th. My focus will be on Getafe’s game with Osasuna – the hosts are looking to confirm their place in continental competition next season with the visitors aiming to avoid the drop.
Digging deeper, Getafe currently occupy a Conference League place but are only three points shy of a Europa League berth (with a better head-to-head record than Celta). However, the Madrid men are also within reach of Rayo Vallecano and Valencia below them and boast a worse head-to-head return against the two teams chasing.
Osasuna must win to avoid the drop. Should the Pamplona side fail to secure top honours, they will be reliant on results elsewhere, though a draw should suffice. Alessio Lisci’s outfit hold an inferior head-to-head record against some of their fellow strugglers and so the away side should be heading to the capital with a remit to get a positive result.
With both Getafe and Osasuna therefore chasing maximum points, it makes little sense for the sides to adopt a pragmatic approach. Now Getafe games rarely escalate, though this contest could easily produce, yet the markets are still anticipating a dour low-scoring showdown and I’m prepared to oppose that view by backing goals.
Osasuna’s most recent five have seen both Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS backers collect, whilst nine of their most recent 11 have delivered Both Teams To Score winners. A repeat holds plenty of appeal at the prices with the match context superseding season-long data.
- Getafe vs Osasuna – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 2.8
- Getafe vs Osasuna – Both Teams To Score – 1 unit @ 2.2
Recommended Bets
- Hull vs Middlesbrough – Under 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.87
- Hull vs Middlesbrough – Both Teams To Score – No – 1 unit @ 2.06
- Getafe vs Osasuna – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 2.8
- Getafe vs Osasuna – Both Teams To Score – 1 unit @ 2.2
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