Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on League One and League Two on Saturday.
Sheffield Wednesday’s excellent start to the season shows little sign of slowing and the League One leaders can justify 4/5 (1.80) favouritism by seeing off struggling Wigan at Hillsborough on Saturday.
Wednesday’s position at the summit is particularly encouraging given the scale of their summer rebuild, but there is plenty of substance behind the story. The Owls have generated the league’s highest xG output (2.48 per game) thus far and their attacking numbers suggest their eye-catching start is no flash in the pan.
Having plundered multiple goals in four of their first five fixtures, my model has the table-toppers in for 2.18 goals against rock-bottom Wigan and that firepower is the biggest reason to support another success. Wednesday have won back-to-back away games and now return to Hillsborough with confidence high and the home crowd firmly behind them.
Their summer recruitment is looking increasingly astute. Callum Slattery and Billy Mitchell have strengthened midfield, while Barry Bannan’s return has restored a major source of creativity and control.
There is depth further forward too. The loss of Louis Barry for around three months could have been a significant setback, but Kieran Morrison has grasped his opportunity and scored the winner at Peterborough last time out. Alongside Mason Burstow, the Owls still possess attacking options that compare favourably with their third-tier rivals.
That spells trouble for a Wigan side who head to South Yorkshire with significant questions to answer after being thumped 4-0 at home by Stockport. The Latics looked alarmingly soft defensively in that defeat and their problems are not confined to one bad afternoon, having been beaten in four of their opening five outings, failing to score in three of those dates.
Key summer departures including goalkeeper Sam Tickle, centre-backs Jason Kerr and Will Aimson and leading scorer Joe Taylor have left Gary Caldwell with a squad short on proven quality. Wigan’s youthful, loanee-heavy attack has potential, but it remains a work in progress and Hillsborough is a difficult venue at which to find answers.
Wednesday are not flawless and are yet to keep a clean sheet, with legitimate concerns surrounding goalkeeper Joe Lumley. However, Wigan have issues of their own between the sticks and the Latics may struggle to contain an Owls side boasting greater firepower, superior depth and home advantage.
Wednesday should have too much for the division’s bottom side and are fancied to maintain their impressive start with another three points.
Walsall look overpriced to continue their unbeaten start by seeing off struggling newcomers Rochdale, and odds of 2.08 about the Saddlers make plenty of appeal on Saturday.
The numbers make a compelling case. My model makes Walsall firm odds-on favourites here, so the opportunity to support Lee Grant’s side at around even-money or better represents a sizeable discrepancy between the model and the market.
There is plenty happening on the pitch to support that assessment too. Grant inherited one of the most heavily rebuilt squads in the EFL this summer, but Walsall have gelled impressively quickly. Recruitment has been smart rather than flashy, with the hosts tapping into the National League market and adding players with real potential.
Lewis Simper provides creativity in midfield and Mason Hancock has been particularly progressive from left-back. There are still signs of a team finding its feet, which makes their unbeaten start all the more encouraging. The Saddlers have not consistently found their top attacking gear and goalkeeper Jed Ward has endured some shaky moments, but the overall trajectory is firmly upwards.
Rochdale’s early-season story has been almost the complete opposite. Dale returned to the EFL after collecting 106 points in the National League last season, but promotion architect Jim McNulty departed for Stockport and new boss Ian Watson has overseen a difficult adjustment to League Two.
Dale have taken just three points (W1-D0-L4) from their opening five games despite facing what appeared to be a relatively favourable opening schedule. Defeats have included a 3-0 reverse at Newport and a damaging 4-1 home loss to Gillingham, with their defence looking particularly vulnerable, recording a solitary shutout.
A 3-0 victory over Shrewsbury showed Rochdale should not be dismissed entirely, but one positive result is not enough to erase the wider concerns surrounding a team adapting to a new manager and tactical approach. The underlying numbers offer little encouragement for the visitors either.
Rochdale are rock-bottom of the xP and xG rankings, have attempted the fewest shots in the division and generated the second-lowest xG output. The model projects the visitors to score only 0.81 goals at the Bescot Stadium, compared with Walsall’s 1.76, and that disparity points towards a Saddlers side who should be well capable of taking top honours.
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