Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus the Premier League and Championship.
The Premier League makes its long-awaited return this weekend and Saturday’s clash between Brighton and Fulham promises plenty for goals backers. The Seagulls were the best Over 2.5 Goals team to follow in the top-fight last term – a hefty 71% of their overall outings featured three strikes or more and an extension of those goals trends appeals at 1.79.
Matches involving Fabian Hurzeler’s troops averaged 3.29 goals per-game, not far off their 3.01 Expected Goals (xG) per-game average with Albion getting on the scoresheet in all bar five of their EPL outings in 2024/25. However, the hosts did struggle to keep their opposition at bay, collecting only four home clean sheets across their league campaign.
Meanwhile, Fulham command plenty of respect following their comfortable mid-table finish. The Cottagers proved very adept against the Premier League’s leading lights – only Liverpool boasted a better record against top-half teams – with Marco Silva’s men seeing 16 of their 20 tussles with top-10 sides delivering winning Both Teams To Score wagers.
That was the case in home and away meetings with Brighton as our proposed Over 2.5 Goals play paid-out on both occasions. Indeed, seven of Fulham’s 10 trips to top-half opponents produced at least three goals, whilst their overall away days averaged 2.76 xG. The Whites earned only three shutouts on their travels yet scored in 16/19 away days.
The Premier League averaged 2.93 goals last season with 57% of matches delivering winning Over 2.5 Goals selections and so with two of the more front-foot sides matching-up here at the Amex, the 1.79 on Over 2.5 Goals looks a strong MD1 angle.
Millwall opened their Championship campaign in style with a 2-1 win at Norwich last weekend. The Lions fired nine shots inside the box and posted 2.09 Expected Goals (xG) at Carrow Road – classic Alex Neil fare: direct, aggressive, and uncompromising.
The South London side are aggressive, direct, and difficult to beat, especially when welcoming sides to their Bermondsey base. Last season, Millwall won 12 home league games, including seven of 13 against sides who finished in the top-14. Remarkably, they conceded one goal or fewer in 12 of those 13 fixtures, underlining their defensive steel.
Middlesbrough will be eager to follow up their MD1 success against Swansea in Rob Edwards’ debut in the dugout. Yet the Teessiders failed to impress, conjuring up just six shots in front of their home supporters and xG tally of only 0.35. This weekend’s task is now undoubtedly more difficult and the visitors are easily opposed in the capital.
Boro were beaten in nine of their 13 trips to the top-14 last term – and with star centre-half Rav van den Berg sold, plus Seny Dieng, George Edmundson, Darragh Lenihan and Riley McGree all missing, the 2.32 available on a Millwall victory stands-out with the hosts primed to impose themselves physically and territorially.
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