Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire has 11 winners from his last 12 European football tips and he shows no sign of stopping this weekend, with a pair of plays from Serie A and Switzerland.
Serie A Tip: GOALS AGAIN IN SERIE A
It’s a rinse and repeat job on Sunday from Serie A as goals again look our best form of attack as Sampdoria take on Lazio at the Marassi. The two teams have been prominent performers in the Over 2.5 Goals market during 2021/22 thus far.
I’m delighted to be able to get the same wager down at a generous 1.75 this weekend.
Sampdoria arrive with plenty to prove after a desperately disappointing midweek showing. Il Doria were atrocious in the second-half of their 3-1 loss at in-form Fiorentina.
Head coach Roberto D’Aversa – an underwhelming summer appointment – is feeling the pressure and a significant improvement from the Genoese outfit is expected back on home soil.
Il Doria tend to produce their best work at the Marassi and the hosts have fared reasonably well when facing sides outside of the top-eight this season. The Blucerchiati know the big city derby is now on the horizon and that carrot should be motivation enough for D’Aversa’s outfit to respond with a positive performance against a Lazio side that struggles on the road.
Lazio were sliced and diced by Napoli at the San Paolo last weekend and have now shipped multiple goals in five of their seven away days. The capital club have tasted success just once in games as guests but have at least proven to be regular scorers when excluding the top-two – the Biancocelesti have bagged in 10 of their remaining 12 league fixtures.
Overall, Maurizio Sarri’s men have been involved in the highest goals per-game average in Serie A (3.57), a significant 57% of their contests have produced four or more goals, whilst five of their seven away matches have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals backers.
Meanwhile, Sampdoria have broken the Over 2.5 Goals barrier in 12 of their most recent 13 outings – eight of which clicked for Over 3.5 Goals supporters. The hosts have scored in 11 of those 13 encounters, and silenced just three opponents all season.
At the Marassi, the Blucerchiati have fired just five blanks in 27 since the start of last season, recording four shutouts.
A whopping 74% of those dates produced Over 2.5 Goals profit and if we crudely combine the 2021/22 Serie A records of Samp and Lazio, a tasty 22/29 (76%) games have seen this wager bank with 16/29 (55%) hitting Over 3.5 Goals.
Switzerland Tip: ZURICH TOO STRONG IN SWITZERLAND
FC Zurich are the new leaders in Switzerland’s Super League. Andre Breitenreiter’s boys have pocketed three consecutive victories, including a 1-0 triumph over defending champions Young Boys, to consolidate top spot after Basel’s inconsistency saw the previous table-toppers relinquish their pacesetting position.
Chasing their first title since 2009, FCZ have been good value for their strong start (W9-D4-L2). Basel or Young Boys have been the opposition in three of the six occasions when Zurich have dropped points domestically, whilst the hosts’ strong home form has provided Breitenreiter with an excellent foundation to work from this term.
Zurich are unbeaten at their Letzigrund base (W5-D2-L0), scoring 18 goals across their seven home outings.
FCZ have won the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) count in six of those showdowns, a feat they’ve also achieved in 11 of their overall 15 fixtures to sit prominently amongst the top-three in the division for Expected Goals (xG) ratio.
So I’m more than happy to keep FC Zurich onside at 1.91 quotes when rock-bottom Luzern (W1-D7-L7) arrive on Saturday.
The visitors are 21 points behind FCZ coming into this clash, have kept a solitary shutout, lost each of their last three games, and are winless on their travels (W0-D5-L2). The visitors have lost the npxG battle in six of those seven away days.
When meeting the breakaway top-four, Luzern have lost the xG contest by an aggregate 8.16 – 15.16 with Basel, Young Boys and Lugano all generating a minimum of 1.85 xG when welcoming Luzern for recent fixtures. Die Leuchten are easily opposed at the prices.
- Over 2.5 Goals in Sampdoria vs Lazio – 2 units @ 1.75
- FC Zurich to beat Luzern – 2 units @ 1.91
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