Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Serie A and the Greek Super League this weekend.
When Patrick Viera was sacked as head coach of Genoa at the beginning of November, the Grifone were rock-bottom and winless in Serie A having scored just four goals in their opening nine matches. The football was dour, defensive and error-ridden.
Fast forward four weeks and Genoa are a very different beast following Viera’s departure. Ex-Italy international Daniele De Rossi was brought in to give the group much-needed spark and the Rossoblu’s following four fixtures have seen the Grifone score nine goals and collect eight points (W2-D2-L0) against Sassuolo, Fiorentina, Cagliari and Verona.
Genoa have moved out of the relegation zone and done so playing a more forward-thinking and expressive style of football, scoring at least twice in each encounter. In those four outings, the Rossoblu have created an xG average of 2.71 when excluding penalties, whilst those four contests produced a total Big Chance count of 23. Genoa are fun to follow again.
However, the market hasn’t caught up with the sudden stylistic shift and is still anticipating low-scoring slugfests whenever Genoa are involved, creating opportunities for goals-based angles. Indeed, Both Teams To Score is available to support at 2.00 when Genoa travel to Udinese on Monday despite this wager winning in all six of their away days thus far.
Defensively, Genoa are still prone to conceding opportunities and the visitors head to the Stadio Friuli with only two clean sheets to their name this term. With Udinese getting on the scoresheet in 10 of their overall 13 Serie A outings this season, a home goal looks most likely. Yet the hosts have managed just three shutouts of their own, and only one in Udine.
Long-term performances have ensured the market’s total goal expectancy remains low around the 2.20 mark, though the past month suggests Genoa could now be one of the division’s more entertaining teams to follow and I’m keen to follow that theme whilst the prices are attractive. So I’ll happily support BTTS at odds of evens on Monday.
AEK Athens have finished in the top-two over the past three years in Greece’s Super League. Though the capital club start the weekend in third, Marko Nikolic’s men remain just three points off the summit after 12 rounds of action and are heavily favoured to enhance their W9-D1-L2 return when they welcome Atromitos (W2-D3-L7) on Sunday.
Exclude the top-two and AEK have proven almost flawless in league action (W7-D1-L0). The Yellow-Blacks have also proven consistent flat-track bullies at their Agia Sophia Stadium base in recent years, returning an eye-catching W23-D2-L0 in their past 25 home games against bottom-half opposition, conceding just seven goals and keeping 19/25 clean sheets.
Interestingly, 21 of those 25 fixtures failed to feature four goals or more and so the combination of AEK Athens to win and Under 3.5 Goals – a wager that includes the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 correct scores – has proven incredibly popular and profitable to follow. A repeat this weekend pays 1.90, a very attractive increase on the general 1.25 Match Odds.
In 2025/26, AEK have won all five home games against teams below them in the table, four of which featured Under 2.5 Goals, whilst 10 of their overall 12 tussles went Under 3.5 Goals. Meanwhile, the title challengers are allowing just 0.57 npxG and fewer than three shots in the box per-game on home soil, highlighting their defensive strength.
Atromitos arrive on the back of a four-game losing Super League streak, failing to score in each of their last three and sit 11th in the 14-team division. The visitors have also lost four of five matches against top-six teams and have failed to score in encounters with big guns Olympiakos, Panathinaikos and PAOK already this term.
The strugglers have generated a league-low five Big Chances in their six away days thus far, and average only two shots on-target on their travels.
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