Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the MLS and League Two…
Six straight MLS victories have propelled Charlotte FC into a prominent position in the Eastern Conference. Dean Smith’s troops sit comfortably inside the play-off positions with their success this season built upon a rock-solid home record.
The Crown have collected 10 triumphs from 13 Bank of America Stadium outings, scoring at least twice in 10 of those outings and keeping six clean sheets along the way. What’s more, their performances have been backed up by the data: Charlotte have won the Non-Penalty xG battle (npxG) in nine of those games, underlining their consistency in both boxes.
Sunday night’s visitors New York Red Bulls have proven similarly strong in their own backyard. However, Sandro Schwarz’s side have struggled for form on the road; the visitors have managed a solitary success and eight defeats in their 13 away days, scoring only eight goals and drawing a blank in six of those fixtures.
Digging into the underlying metrics, it’s easy to see why NYRB have fallen flat outside of their Big Apple base. The Red Bulls rank second-bottom in away Expected Points (xP), rock-bottom for away xG per-game, generate the fewest away shots on-target and second-lowest shots from inside the box on their travels, whilst losing the xG battle in 10/13 away.
With momentum, confidence, and underlying performance data all pointing towards the hosts, I’m happy to support Charlotte at 1.90 as they bid to secure a seventh straight MLS success on Sunday night.
Shrewsbury’s start to life back in League Two has been nothing short of alarming. With just one point from their first four fixtures, the Shrews already look vulnerable. Salop have conceded a league-high 10 goals, while producing a paltry 0.40 xG per game; Michael Appleton’s side have yet to create a single Big Chance, and a season of struggle beckons.
It fits an established trend. In 10 of the last 11 League Two seasons, at least one pre-season relegation outsider priced at 9/1+ has gone down. And in the past three years, 10 of the 12 sides relegated from League One have slumped into the bottom half the following campaign — two suffering back-to-back relegations. Shrewsbury could be the latest casualty.
Off the pitch, Salop’s challenges are equally stark. With ownership unable to fund the club to competitive levels, Appleton is hamstrung in the market. Meanwhile, a Wednesday night trip to Notts County (shipping four goals in defeat) has left the group with less rest and recovery time ahead of their next away day, a trip to the County Ground on Saturday.
By contrast, Swindon came into 2025/26 as potential dark horses following an impressive run under Ian Holloway last term. The Robins have taken six points from their opening four games, but the underlying data suggests they’ve deserved more. The hosts have won the npxG battle in three of those four outings, ranking inside the league’s top-six for xP.
At the County Ground, Holloway’s men have been particularly reliable, striking at least twice in 12 of their last 18 home matches. With Harry Smith leading the line and Joe Snowdon providing creativity from midfield, the Robins have the weapons to punish Shrewsbury’s brittle backline and so the home appear primed to compound Salop’s early-season misery.
+0.28 units – Mark O’Haire’s Insights P&L
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