Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Bundesliga and La Liga this Saturday.
The Bundesliga is avergaing 3.20 goals per-game this season with 41% of fixtures featuring Over 3.5 Goals, making Germany’s top-flight the highest-scoring major league in Europe. Translate that 41% hit-rate into implied odds and we should expect to see Over 3.5 Goals chalked up around the 29/20 (2.45) mark in a standard Bundesliga contest.
Yet here I’m going to be recommending Over 3.5 Goals at a much shorter price of 41/40 (2.02) when Hoffenheim welcome Stuttgart to Sinsheim on Saturday. It may look and sound much too short, but I believe there’s a strong case to be made to suggest this is a very worthy avenue of attack when digging deeper into the data and context of the clash.
At this point of time, it’s still unclear whether the Bundesliga will receive an extra Champions League qualification place. Nevertheless, the battle for a top-four (or top-five) finish is incredibly tight. Stuttgart start the weekend in fourth, level on points with Hoffenheim in fifth, whilst Bayer Leverkusen are just two points behind in sixth.
So whichever way we try and slice it, this is an enormous match with only three rounds of the season left – both sides are going to be hugely motivated to pick up a positive result and the two teams are already renowned for their offensive approach, suggesting a shootout could be in the offing when the pair cross swords at the PreZero Arena.
Hoffenheim arrive having scored in 26 of their 31 Bundesliga fixtures, notching twice or more in 18 of those outings – Stuttgart have netted in 28 of 31, bagging multiple goals in 17 of those dates. Meanwhile, each team has managed only three clean sheets across their respective 15 home/away encounters this term, producing regular goals at both ends.
In terms of our proposed Over 3.5 Goals play, that’s already been hit in 47% of Hoffe’s home outings (averaging 3.27 goals and 3.08 xG), whilst a massive 60% of Stuttgart’s away days have followed suit (avergaing an astonishing 4.27 goals and 3.40 xG). An enormous 80% of those 15 road trips involving the Swabians have delivered winning BTTS wagers.
Meanwhile, Stuttgart’s previous trips to top-10 teams enforce the idea that this match could easily escalate into a high-scoring basketball-style showdown. Those results thus far read: 2-4, 3-3,1-3. 4-1, 1-3, 5-2, 2-2 – our Over 3.5 Goals play doing the business in all seven of those contests and so I’m eager to support a repeat around the even-money mark on Saturday.
We successfully supported a goals-based wager in Alaves’ crucial six-pointer with Mallorca last weekend and I see no reason to desert the goals trail when the Vitoria outfit return to action on Saturday evening against Athletic Club. Both Teams To Score holds plenty of appeal at 17/20 (1.86) with the two teams still having plenty to play for.
Alaves’ 2-1 triumph over Mallorca moves Quique Sanchez-Flores’ team two points clear of the drop-zone with five games to play – the hosts are still in danger and will be looking to pull further clear against an out-of-form Athletic outfit. But with Les Leones only three points adrift of European qualification, the away side are unlikely to roll over.
What’s more, Ernesto Valverde’s visitors head to Mendizorrotza with a fully fit squad – that means the Williams brothers will be available from the off, a luxury Athletic haven’t had for the most part of the campaign. And despite their dodgy recent run, goals have been prominent in Les Leones outings with 12 of their past 16 in La Liga seeing both sides score.
Clean sheets have become an ongoing issue for Athletic (6), as well as Alaves (3) this term, though the home side have quickly become one of the division’s most entertaining teams to follow. A tasty 11 of their past 13 top-flight matches have also paid-out for Both Teams To Score backers with the hosts striking at least twice in eight of those recent match-ups.
Striker Lucas Boye went off injured last weekend and will be missing here, though Alaves have shown enough under Sanchez-Flores to suggest they can penetrate Athletic’s rearguard here and with 12 of the 16 overall encounters at Mendizorrotza this season seeing BTTS bank, I’m more than happy to support a repeat at a generous price on Saturday.
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
