Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Premier League and Ligue 1 this weekend.
Liverpool started 2025/26 with seven consecutive wins across all competitions with the Reds appearing in prime position to put up a robust Premier League title defence and again go deep in the Champions League. Having splashed the cash in the summer, the Merseysiders were eager to reinforce their place at the top of the charts.
Fast forward two months and Liverpool are in the midst of their worst run in 71 years after suffering a humiliating 4-1 defeat by PSV at Anfield. Nine defeats in 12 matches for the first time since the 1953-54 season, three consecutive defeats by a margin of three goals for the first time since 1953 and seven goals conceded in just five days at home.
Arne Slot is under increasing pressure as he tries to find a solution to what has fast become a serious problem with supporters questioning whether he is still the right man for the job. The ragged Reds were booed off at the end of the dispiriting midweek defeat and debate has raged over the team’s best XI, right tactical system, plus the team’s heart and desire.
In the Premier League, Liverpool have leaked 20 goals in 12 matches, whilst only Burnley and West Ham have faced more Big Chances. So the odds-on Merseysiders make no appeal when they travel to the London Stadium on Sunday – the Reds have already lost five of eight away days this term despite being odds-on favourites in six of those showdowns.
In fact, Liverpool have returned just W7-D2-L10 in their past 19 games as guests across all competitions (they were odds-on favourites in 11 of those outings), and the visitors have also managed a paltry three clean sheets across their last 20 away dates. With that in-mind, I’m happy to support a rejuvenated West Ham with a +1 start at 1.78.
Should West Ham score, Liverpool would require at least three goals for this selection to lose, and the Reds have notched a minimum of three goals just twice in their last 16 encounters, both of which came at Anfield. Slot’s squad have also managed 3+ goals only once away from Anfield in the current calendar year.
West Ham have posted W2-D1-L0 in their last three fixtures, including back-to-back London Stadium victories. Nuno Espirito Santo’s influence is beginning to show in terms of style and structure, and the Hammers have been aided by having an in-form, fit and hungry Callum Wilson leading the line. There’s enough evidence to suggest they can be competitive here.
Strasbourg look too big to ignore at 1.87 against Brest on Sunday in Ligue 1. Liam Rosenior’s outfit have been excellent operators at their Stade de la Meinau base, winning five of six league outings at home with their only defeat arriving in stoppage-time against second-placed Marseille. Le Racing have silenced their visitors in all five of their home victories.
Les Bleu et Blanc sit second only to Marseille on home Expected Points (xP) and if we exclude penalties, Strasbourg top the tree for both Expected Goals For (xGA) and xG Against (xGA). The hosts have racked up an average of 2.26 xGA at the Meinau, generating a massive 25 Big Chances and limiting their opposition to a league-low number of six here.
Strasbourg’s home form has been constant under Rosenior. The English coach has been in-charge of RCS since the beginning of last term and Le Racing have returned 15 (65%) wins in 23 Ligue 1 outings here, suffering only three league losses – the Alsace outfit are averaging 2.00 goals per-game during that same sample, highlighting their threat at home.
In 2025/26, Strasbourg boast a W6-D0-L0 return when facing off against bottom-half opposition – keeping five clean sheets in the process – and so a home showdown against 14th-placed Brest should be well within range. The visitors required a last-gasp penalty to beat struggling Metz last weekend and have failed to score in five of their last seven.
Struggling in the final-third, Brest are also hemorrhaging goals and chances at the back. The visitors have conceded at least twice in eight of 13 league fixtures, leaking 3+ goals in four meetings with top-six teams, as well as in half of their away days thus far. Unsurprisingly, Les Pirates have lost four of six away days, shipping 2.00 goals per-game.
Drill into the data and Brest are creating the fifth-lowest xGF figure on their travels, conceding the fourth-most xGA. Eric Roy’s team are also avergaing the second-fewest shots, on-target attempts and Big Chances when playing away, whilst their long-term road record of 14 Ligue 1 losses in 23 (conceding 2.17 goals per-game) is real cause for concern.
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