Mark O'Haire - Trotters Title Charge & Burgos Too Big To Turn Down

6 min

Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a tip each from England and Spain.


Bolton have been League One’s form side since the end of September. The Trotters are well worth keeping onside this Saturday when lowly Exeter arrives at the Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Wanderers have taken top honours in seven of their last eight league encounters to move to within one point of the third-tier summit, and Ian Evatt’s outfit can be supported at 1.8 when backing Bolton to win and Over 1.5 Goals.

The Trotters have returned six triumphs from nine in front of their home supporters, striking twice or more on five occasions.

In contrast, Exeter are on the slide. The Grecians posted five victories in their opening eight, but things have rapidly unravelled since; Gary Caldwell’s group have picked up a solitary point from their past eight outings (W0-D1-L7) and have been beaten in eight of their last 10 League One contests.

The alarming run has left Exeter one place above the drop-zone.

Digging deeper into Exeter’s woes, we can see the Grecians have lost their last four away days, shipping three goals or more in three of those recent road trips.

And strip out results against the bottom-three, City have suffered defeat in nine of their overall 13 fixtures this season, suggesting they struggle when stepping up in class.

The running eight-game Expected Goals (xG) form table is also worrisome.

In those eight matches, Exeter rank rock-bottom in terms of xG process, allowing an enormous 24 Big Chances to their opponents – that’s over 10 more than the league average.

Recommended Bet: BOLTON & OVER 1.5 GOALS vs Exeter – 1 unit @ 1.8


Burgos are too big to ignore at 2.40 on Saturday when the Segunda side welcome Andorra.

But we can still get an odds-against 2.03 offering by backing the Blanquinegros with a -0.25 Asian Handicap start; this selection would see half our stake returned as a push should the match end in a draw, providing a slice of protection against the stalemate.

Burgos are as two-faced as it comes when viewing their home and away efforts; Bolo’s boys have earned a solitary point from eight away encounters this term, yet the Castile club have posted W6-D2-L0 when welcoming second-tier sides to El Plantio with their home Expected Goals (xG) process ranking third-best in the division.

The Blanquinegros boast a positive +6.8 xG supremacy here and have toppled league-leaders Leganes, as well as high-flying Eibar, at El Plantio already this term and so a visit from terrible travellers Andorra should be well within reach for Burgos.

Andorra bagged a 0-0 draw at Villarreal B last weekend, although that match was played in comically foggy conditions, and the visitors went into that encounter having suffered four defeats in their first seven games as guests.

Exclude the bottom-four and Andorra have returned W0-D1-L4 on the road, shipping multiple goals in all four of those losses.

Across all venues, Andorra are winless in seven, and the lack of transport infrastructure in the region often hampers Els Tricolors.

Without a major airport or train station servicing Andorra, long and laboured coach journeys are necessary; the expected seven-hour road trek to Burgos isn’t the ideal preparation for a side that struggles away.

Recommended Bet: BURGOS -0.0/0.5 vs Andorra – 1 unit @ 2.03

Recommended Bets

  • BOLTON & OVER 1.5 GOALS vs Exeter – 1 unit @ 1.80
  • BURGOS -0.0/0.5 vs Andorra – 1 unit @ 2.03

Watch Our Weekend Football Preview:

Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here

Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here