Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns fresh off another 2-0 weekend on his Insights selections to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays from France on Sunday.
ANGERS OPPOSABLE AGAIN
We successfully opposed Angers last weekend as Ligue 1’s rock-bottom outfit were thrashed 5-0 at Montpellier and I’m quite happy to follow a similar avenue of attack on Sunday when Le SCO return home to entertain Toulouse at the Raymond Kopa Stadium.
Angers’ latest loss has left the no-hopers 12 points adrift of safety having lost 20 (77%) of their 26 league dates this term, whilst Les Noirs et Blancs head coach Abdel Bouhazama was also dismissed following reprehensible media reports of a team talk in which he appeared to downplay allegations of sexual assault against his left-back Ilyes Chetti.
The basement battlers are already planning for life in Ligue 2 with key players Sofiane Boufal and Azzedine Ounahi jumping ship in January, with the side enduring a disastrous run of results since the September international break.
Across their most recent 18 Ligue 1 showdowns, Angers have picked up just two points from a possible 54 (W0-D2-L16).
Le SCO have suffered 10 defeats in 13 in front of their home supports, a return that includes eight losses from nine winless Raymond Kopa Stadium showdowns since September, shipping multiple goals on eight occasions.
When facing top-12 teams, Angers have posted W0-D0-L7 as hosts, leaking twice or more in every encounter. They’re easily opposed, again.
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Toulouse returned to the top-flight at the start of the season and have an eye-catching impression.
The newly-promoted outfit have consolidated in mid-table, and reached a Coupe de France semi-final with Philippe Montanier’s dynamic and progressive side boasting a heady blend of pace and potential, plus untapped quality from across the globe.
Téfécé come into this clash off three straight league losses, although two of those tussles came against in-form Reims and Marseille, and Les Violets have proven consistent operators when taking on the lesser lights.
Indeed, Toulouse have taken W7-D2-L1 against sides below them in the standings, winning all five fixtures against the current bottom-four.
Montanier’s men have scored in 20 of their 26 league dates, and struck 10 times in their three wins against bottom-six opposition, suggesting they should be more than capable of collecting something from Sunday’s clash.
After all, they’re travelling to an Angers side that’s already suffered 20 (77%) defeats in 26 league fixtures this season.
ENTERTAINMENT EXPECTED IN BRITTANY
Ligue 1 is Europe’s second-highest major scoring league this season, with the French top-tier averaging a hefty 2.84 goals per-game.
Overall, 55% of matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals – that hit-rate implies blanket odds around 1.82 might be expected in an average encounter, yet we’re able to support that selection at 1.91 when Lorient face Troyes.
These two teams are amongst the chief protagonists for goal-filled games in France, and there’s good reason to believe Sunday’s match-up could prove to be an entertaining affair.
Lorient’s dizzying early season form regressed from October, with European qualification hopes stalling. However, the pre-season relegation contenders remain comfortable in mid-table under the tutorship of rookie head coach Regis Le Bris.
Les Merlus’ did lose a few standout stars in January, yet the hosts retooled impressively in the transfer window.
Raw results show Lorient have fired four blanks in five, but underlying data suggests the Brittany boys are still carving out plenty of opportunities in the final-third.
A contest against one of Ligue 1’s most out-of-form and defensively inept outfits could well provide the springboard Les Merlus are looking for to re-find their best efforts.
Troyes are in free-fall. The Champagne club are winless in nine (W0-D2-L7) and have picked up a solitary success since September’s international break.
The arrival of Patrick Kisnorbo as boss in November has failed to stem the bleeding with ESTAC continuing their dismal defensive displays. The visitors have posted a solitary shutout across 2022/23.
Despite conceding an average of 2.19 goals, Troyes do at least provide a threat of their own in the final-third.
The hosts have managed to get on the scoresheet in 20 (77%) of their 26 league tussles, and that combination has led to numerous shootouts; indeed, no side has seen Over 2.5 Goals land more often or delivered a higher proportion of BTTS winners.
Overall, games are averaging a bulbous 3.58 goals with 77% of Troyes’ matches seeing both sides score and 69% producing a minimum of three strikes.
Those figures take a hike when ESTAC play away; 12 of 13 games have gone Over 2.5, eight even broke the Over 4.5 barrier, and 11 have paid-out for BTTS backers with 4.54 goals per-game on average.
Collectively, the duo have managed only seven clean sheets in 52 league outings, 37 (71%) of which landed the Both Teams To Score bounty and 35 (67%) saw the Over 2.5 Goals barrier beat. Drill into respective home/away records, and our proposed Over 2.5 Goals play has produced the goods in a whopping 21/26 (81%), making 1.91 very attractive.
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