Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Serie A and La Liga this weekend.
Serie A has been fantastic fun to follow this season. After 10 rounds, Italy’s top-flight is averaging a whopping 3.18 goals per-game, with 61% of matches producing Over 2.5 Goals, 34% featuring at least four goals and 58% rewarding Both Teams To Score (BTTS) backers.
For context, last season’s average was just 2.43 goals per-game, following returns of 2.56, 2.61 and 2.57 in the three preceding campaigns. It’s a remarkable transformation, and the underlying numbers suggest this attacking explosion is no fluke.
Expected Goals (xG) are averaging 3.10 per-game, up from 2.52 last term, while shots have surged almost 18%, from fewer than 25 to nearly 29 per-match. Remarkably, only two of the opening 100 fixtures have finished goalless.
Tactical tweaks have contributed, but a more lenient refereeing approach appears particularly influential. Fewer fouls, fewer stoppages and less VAR interference have encouraged greater fluidity, with fouls dropping from 25.4 to 21.8 per-game and bookings falling from 3.7 to 3.2.
The upshot? Blindly backing Over 2.5 Goals would have returned an 8% profit on investment this season, and there’s reason to believe further opportunities remain.
Roma return to domestic duty following a disastrous second-half collapse at Old Trafford in midweek, the second occasion Gian Piero Gasperini’s troops have surrendered a promising Champions League position this season. The Giallorossi will be desperate to respond against Sassuolo on Saturday night.
Unbeaten in Serie A (W7-D3-L0), Roma rank third for Expected Points (xP), with only Inter generating more than their 2.28 xG per-game. At the Olimpico, the capital club have averaged 3.00 goals, 2.35 xG and upwards of 21 shots across seven competitive fixtures (W5-D1-L1). The only reverse arriving against Real Madrid.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, arrive in disarray. Winless in six, with five defeats, Alberto Aquilani’s strugglers have shipped four or more goals in three of their last four outings, conceding upwards of 2.0 xG in each. Indeed, eight of their 10 league opponents have struck multiple goals.
Nevertheless, the Neroverdi retain attacking ambition. Sassuolo have scored in nine of 10 Serie A matches, averaging 1.39 xG and 2.50 Big Chances per-game. With Roma conceding at least twice in six of their previous nine appearances, the visitors should fancy contributing to the occasion.
My goals model projects 3.63 goals, making Roma to win and BTTS an appealing avenue at generous 2.54 quotes. That combination has already landed in five of Sassuolo’s 10 league encounters, and the contrasting defensive records suggest another entertaining evening awaits in the Eternal City.
Entertainment should be on the agenda when Real Sociedad welcome Rayo Vallecano to Anoeta on Sunday, with both sides developing a reputation for open, exciting encounters in La Liga this season.
The Spanish top-flight is averaging a healthy 3.01 goals per-game, and my goal expectancy for this contest sits slightly higher at 3.04. Recent head-to-head history adds further encouragement, with five of the last seven meetings producing Over 2.5 Goals, including April’s thrilling 3-3 draw that generated a whopping 4.61 Expected Goals (xG).
The wider numbers make a compelling case for another goal-filled encounter. Collectively, the duo have contested 21 league fixtures this season, with Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 each landing in 16 (76%). Narrow the focus to Sociedad’s home matches and Rayo’s away assignments, and BTTS has obliged in 8/10, with seven clearing the Over 2.5 line.
Those trends are supported by the underlying performance data. La Real’s league games average 3.64 goals and 3.12 xG, while Rayo’s return similarly eye-catching figures of 3.50 goals and 3.09 xG.
Defensive vulnerabilities are evident throughout. Real Sociedad have managed just one clean sheet in 11 league outings, although they have managed to get on the scoresheet themselves on eight occasions, generating upwards of 2.0 xG in three of their last five. And following last week’s derby disappointment, the hosts will be eager to respond positively.
The Basques’ attacking transformation under Pellegrino Matarazzo is particularly noteworthy. Since his mid-season arrival last term, Real Sociedad’s 32 league fixtures have averaged 3.56 goals, with BTTS banking in 78%, including 12 of 16 home encounters.
Meanwhile, Rayo arrive having found the net in nine of 10 league appearances, including trips to Barcelona and Real Madrid, but have also registered only one shutout themselves.
The selection is BTTS alongside Under 5.5 Goals, combining the strong expectation of goals at both ends with a sensible ceiling on the overall scoreline. Indeed, 27 of Matarazzo’s 32 league matches have stayed below six goals, as have 19 of these teams’ combined 21 league fixtures this campaign.
That leaves plenty of appealing outcomes onside, including 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-1 and 3-2 either way. With both attacks regularly creating chances and neither defence offering much reassurance, this combination looks an attractive way to approach the contest.
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