With six winners from his last six selections, Europan Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns from a week off ready to get stuck into some bets from the continent!
Goals On The Agenda In Genoa
We’re almost a third of the way through the 2021/22 Serie A season, and it’s pleasing to see the Italian top-flight continuing to trend towards an open, expansive, and exciting style of football.
League-wide, matches have tended to be entertaining affairs, and that’s reflected in the numbers – the opening 110 games have produced 3.07 goals on average.
A bulbous 65% of Serie A fixtures have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals backers, with 39% of contests producing a minimum of four goals.
Both sides have obliged in 61% of encounters, so I’m again keen to try and spot any potential inefficiencies in the goals market as we approach MD12 on the peninsula this weekend.
Sampdoria’s showdown with Bologna immediately stands out, with Over 2.5 Goals offered at a very appealing 1.76.
Firstly, it’s a selection that’s won in each of Sampdoria’s last nine league outings, as well as six of Bologna’s most recent eight.
Combine the two clubs’ records this term, and half of their collective 22 clashes have even featured Over 3.5 Goals pay-outs.
Samp’s matches are averaging 3.36 goals, with Bologna’s boasting a sky-high 3.55 per game.
The visitors have only fired blanks against high-flying Napoli and Atalanta, whilst Sampdoria tend to score freely at Marassi, notching in 20 of their last 25 here since the start of last term. Bologna have kept their sheets clean in only three of 24 road trips in the same sample.
Stylistically, the wager works too.
Sampdoria president Massimo Ferrero has given head coach Roberto D’Aversa the dreaded vote of confidence after a sticky W1-D1-L5 spell has seen the Blucerchiati drop down the division.
Il Doria have shipped three goals or more in six of those seven showdowns and defensively have looked all at sea in recent weeks.
Nevertheless, D’Aversa prefers a front-foot approach, and he’s not short of options in forward areas.
Sampdoria can call upon summer signing Francesco Caputo and veteran skipper Fabio Quagliarella in attack and Manolo Gabbiadini, Antonio Candreva and potentially Mikkel Damsgaard here as he continues his comeback from injury.
Meanwhile, Bologna also command respect in the final third.
The Rossoblu have struck at least twice in five of seven games against teams outside of the top-six and head to Genoa with Marko Arnautovic finding his range, plus Musa Barrow and Roberto Soriano in support in Sinisa Mihajlovic’s preferred 3-4-2-1 system with high-pressing wing-backs.
I’m anticipating plenty of goals between the two inconsistent outfits and would happily take Over 2.5 Goals here down to 1.70.
Basel Too Big To Ignore
Unbeaten Basel (W7-D5-L0) top the Swiss Super League charts after 12 rounds of action, and Patrick Rahmen’s outfit appear good value 1.8 shots to consolidate their position at the summit by overcoming St Gallen (W3-D3-L6) at St. Jakob-Park on Sunday.
FCB are without a title success in Switzerland for four seasons now – their only piece of silverware during that dry spell was a solitary domestic cup success – but the RotBlau have enjoyed a promising 2021/22.
With defending champions Young Boys dropping points in five of their first 11 fixtures, this is an excellent opportunity for Basel to wrestle back control.
The hosts have returned W4-D2-L0 across their opening six home outings, including holding Young Boys here, a contest Rahmen’s troops shaded.
FCB have enjoyed a 69% non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) ratio supremacy across those St. Jakob-Park matches, generating 2.66 npxG per-game on average, as well as landing an impressive 7.33 shots on-target.
Overall, the RotBlau rank inside the top-two of the Super League for almost all major metrics and have scored a league-high 29 goals thus far.
Meanwhile, visitors St Gallen own the division’s worst defensive record, have shipped 17 strikes in six road trips – five of which have ended in defeat (W1-D0-L5) – whilst giving up 2.07 npxG on average away.
Basel have already bagged a 2-0 triumph at St Gallen this season, and the hosts should be capable of repeating the feat considering the guests are returning a negative xG process.
They have lost the npxG battle in eight of their 12 Super League encounters this term.
- Over 2.5 Goals in Sampdoria vs Bologna 2 units @ 1.76
- Basel -0.50 Asian Handicap in Basel vs St Gallen 2 units @ 1.80
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