Mark Stinchcombe: “Based on the match odds, Bournemouth are only 0.10 goals better than Newcastle and I think the gulf should be bigger than that.”

8 min

Mark Stinchcombe has three Premier League bets for the weekend.

In a limited Premier League weekend it’s good to have an old friend to rely on, and once again my best bet of the weekend is overs in Bournemouth’s game. They host Newcastle United at the Vitality Stadium where the expected goals is 2.55 meaning the 2.25 line is available at a competitive price. I’ve talked about Bournemouth countless times so let’s first concentrate on Newcastle.

Newcastle’s matches this season have only seen 67 goals, at a rate of just 2.23pg. However, it’s defensively where they’re overachieving, with expected goals rating them that they should have conceded nearly 11 more goals, which is the biggest difference in the league.

The main reason for the bet is the disparity between both teams matches average expected goals and the market estimation. It’s 3.0pg v 2.90pg yet the aforementioned expectation is just 2.55. And given we know how crazy Bournemouth are both going forward and at the back, I think this is the perfect matchup to try and exploit this line.

To recap Bournemouth’s key stats to date:

  • 95 goals in their matches this season – 3.17pg
  • 37 of their last 51 matches over 2.5 goals (73%)
  • 10 clean sheets in their last 53 games

These two sides are joint seventh for most shots conceded per-game and I think this is a great recipe this weekend. The previous meetings haven’t been shy of action either. Newcastle won the reverse fixture 2-1 with expected goals returning a total of 4.50. This match last season finished 2-2, with the xG totalling another whopping 5.45 so chance creation should be plentiful come Saturday and I’m happy having two points here.

Back to back Bournemouth bets

There’s another bet I want to take here as well, and that’s to back Bournemouth. Based on the match odds, which says they are only 0.10 goals better than Newcastle if we remove home advantage. I think the gulf should be bigger than that.

Just looking at the eye test, Callum Wilson and Joshua King are better than Salomon Rondon and Ayoze Perez while Ryan Fraser and Dan Brooks offer more creativity than the Newcastle midfield.

There probably isn’t much to split the defences at the moment but when Bournemouth are spending £20M on Nathan Ake, £11M on Chris Mepham and £10M on Diego Rico, it’s likely long-term they’ll be better than Newcastle’s basement purchases. Bournemouth also have a very good record at home to non-big six sides. They’ve won 17 of their last 28, losing just twice.

Mark feels that Rafa Benitez’s Newcastle side will struggle this weekend.

As already mentioned Newcastle are conceding the seventh most shots but this rises to the fourth most away from home (16.5), something which Bournemouth are ideally set up to exploit. I’ve seen a model rate the Cherries 54% – or 1.85 – and it doesn’t surprise when you look at expected points and see Newcastle in 18th.

Overall it means we can take Bournemouth -0.25, meaning if it finishes in a draw we still get half our stake back.

Hammers to hammer Huddersfield

My final bet for the weekend is to back West Ham to beat Huddersfield.

This sounds pretty obvious given Huddersfield’s woes this season, but I still think there’s a bit of value. As a reminder, they have lost 22 of their 30 games this season (73%), including 10 of 14 away from home. They’ve managed just 15 goals at a rate of 0.5pg, whilst conceding 53 (1.77pg). They’ve lost 15 of their last 17 (88%), failing to score in 10 of their last 15 (67%). It’s very, very easy to back them to lose.

West Ham meanwhile have adjusted to life well under Manuel Pellegrini.

He seems to be getting a tune out of the likes of Marko Arnautovic and Felipe Anderson, whilst Declan Rice just seems to be getting better every week. On top of the that Manuel Lanzini is back to full fitness, and the addition of Samir Nasri who previously worked with Pellegrini at Man City, adds even more quality. They’ve had some impressive results at the London Stadium too, beating both Man Utd and Arsenal.

Manuel Pellegrini is starting to have a real positive effect on the Hammers.

The Hammers are 1.61, and the reason I’m interested here is based on the prices they were at home to similar teams. They were 1.66 v Cardiff and 1.58 v Burnley. I think we definitely argue Huddersfield are a level below those two at 14 and 16 points behind Cardiff and Burnley respectively, while expected points has a similar gulf. So for me, I think maybe West Ham should be more 1.53. So here I’m going to back the Hammers -0.75, with half a win should it only be a one goal victory.

Recommended Bets

  • Over 2.25 goals Bournemouth – Newcastle ~1.85 – 2 points
  • Bournemouth -0.25 ~1.81 – 1.5 points
  • West Ham -0.75 ~1.78 – 0.5 points

Host Ali Maxwell is joined by Nigel Seeley and Mark O’Haire to look ahead to the weekend’s football action, with four games analysed, all in different competitions. Nigel, a betting journalist and top tipster across multiple sports has some strong opinions on Hull vs QPR and Watford vs Crystal Palace. Mark, the brains behind WeLoveBetting, takes a detailed look at Rangers vs Kilmarnock and St Gallen vs FC Lugano.