Mark Stinchcombe returns with a couple of goals angles for this weekend’s Premier League action.
You’ve Heard This One Before Folks
I don’t want to sound like a broken record but overs looks a great bet in Bournemouth’s match.
And the reason I’m excited is the goal line isn’t even 2.5, it’s 2.25!
I can see a reason for this, I’ve spoken about Wolves’ defence recently on the podcast, they have the 3rd best defence in terms of expected goals in the league. But we have to respect that Bournemouth are a kamikaze side. They score and concede for fun. So in my mind, the goal line has to be 2.5, with maybe the odds favouring the unders. So I feel there’s lots of scope for value here.
Bournemouth’s matches this season have seen 84 goals at a rate of 3.23pg. The expected goals is returning a figure of 3.1, so not too dissimilar. Wolves, on the other hand, their matches have seen 67 goals (2.58pg), with the xG backing this up with 2.60. 36 of Bournemouth’s last 47 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (77%) with just 9 clean sheets in their last 49 games. Remember the line is just 2.25 on this occasion.
Wolves won this 2-0 when they met in December, with the xG count totalling 2.49 – obviously higher than 2.25. With Bournemouth at home this time, I expect a lot more attacking intent from them with the door clearly open at the other end.
Backing The Toon Army On Saturday
Next, I want to oppose Huddersfield. They’ve scored just 14 goals in 26 games this season, whilst losing 19 of them (73%). Yet they face a side who are available at 1.90. This is, in fact, the next lowest scoring side in Newcastle United, however, I feel there is a gulf between the sides. Newcastle have scored eight more goals whilst conceding 14 fewer – a huge swing of 22 goals.
Statistically neither side fare well in terms of shots, xG etc. but I think the number of games Huddersfield are losing and the goal differential between the two outweighs it all. And that doesn’t include the fact that Newcastle have just spent £24M on Miguel Almiron, who whilst I rate him highly, I’ve no idea how he’ll adjust to the Premier League. However, his 18-minute cameo against Wolves he looked really exciting, and I’m quietly confident he’ll be excellent for the Toon Army.
Overall, I checked a model which rated Newcastle a 1.8 chance so I’m happy to back them around 1.90. Newcastle have won the last two meetings between the sides.
Attacking Another 2.25 Line
Finally, I want to back goals in the Saturday night TV game between Leicester and Crystal Palace. The line is just 2.25 and I’ve often said unless you have a defensive side involved in the Premier League, the line has to be 2.5. The Premier League is averaging 2.83 goals-per-game this season – a spread of 261 matches. Leicester’s matches are only averaging 2.5pg and Crystal Palace’s 2.3 but crucially both are underperforming xG wise with their matches expecting 2.60 and 2.70 goals respectively.
This is also backed up in their shot data, with both sitting mid-table. If this was Huddersfield v Southampton then I could understand the goal line but not between two mid-table clubs.
There isn’t really any trends to go on, but maybe that’s because previous results haven’t been a true reflection of what the underlying data is telling us. As it is, I’m happy to trust in the long-term performances rather than focus on an individual or a small spread of matches. For example, let’s see what effect Michy Batusayi has on Palace’s ‘unluckiness’ in front of goal.
- Over 2.25 goals Bournemouth – Wolves 1.89 – 1.5 points
- Newcastle 1.90 – 1 point
- Over 2.25 goals Leicester – Crystal Palace 1.97 – 1 point
Host Ali Maxwell is joined by Nigel Seeley and Mark O’Haire to look ahead to the weekend’s Premier League action, with a side of Spanish football action.