A chastened Mark Stinchcombe returns following a bleak showing last week determined to bounce back with two home selections for the weekend’s Premier League action.
Three losers out of three last week but I maintain they were all really good bets and I’ve got two standout selections from this week’s Premier League.
My biggest bet of the season turned into the biggest flop of the season as only one goal was seen between Brighton and Southampton. There were plenty of shots in the game (23) but it stank of a match between two desperate teams with just three efforts finding the target, resulting in an xG of only 1.64.
I was a goal short in Leicester – Bournemouth but with a total xG of 2.68 I can feel hard done by with not going over 2.50 goals. And finally, it was a deserved defeat for West Ham. Perhaps it should not be a huge surprise with one of their best players ruled out before kick-off in Felipe Anderson. The perils of only finding out the lineups an hour before kick-off.
Gunning For The Gunners
I can’t believe the Arsenal price this weekend.
2.39 away to Everton looks enormous and let me tell you plenty of reasons why. Goodison Park on Sunday afternoon sees 10th v 4th, 43 points v 63 points, +3 goal difference v +26 goal difference. In other words a big gulf in quality yet the market says Arsenal are only 0.2 goals better (after home advantage has been factored in of course).
Let’s look back at the reverse fixture where Arsenal won 2-0 at the Emirates. Arsenal were 1.40 that day, and by my calculations that would make them 1.82 here. Coincidentally, they were actually 1.82 here last season, a fixture which they won 5-2.
Have Arsenal regressed? And significantly?
Because the facts tell you that after victory against Newcastle on Monday, Unai Emery has already equalled Arsene Wenger’s points total from last season with seven games remaining.
And if we look at Marco Silva’s Everton, their record against the ‘big 6’ doesn’t make for pretty reading. P9 W1 D2 L6 F6 A16 -10. Arsenal, on the other hand, have won 14 of 18 matches against sides 10th and below (78%) and 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Toffees.
I’ve seen a model rate Arsenal at 2.10 but I want to factor in the 1.82 from last season, plus my calculation of 1.82 based on the reverse fixture. So I’m happy to go halfway and suggest Arsenal should be around 1.96. But the market is around a quarter of an Asian goal bigger, which means we can take Arsenal -0.25 providing some security with the draw.
I seem to talk about Bournemouth every week but with good reason when they’re amongst the best value in the Premier League! Regular readers will know I have a particular fondness for goals in their games but this week it’s the match odds which grabbed my attention. The goal line, just for transparency, is about right in my opinion. We all know Burnley are renowned for their defensive organisation and aren’t exactly adventurous going forward, so given the line is 2.50, I think that’s about right.
Very similar to the Arsenal game, I’m surprised Bournemouth are odds against.
2.15 here, they were 2.33 in the reverse fixture which doesn’t add up.
Based on that 2.33, by my calculations they should be around 1.67 on Saturday. They have a good record at home to non-big six sides, winning 17 of their last 29 games, losing just twice. And this looks a great opposition to face given the way Burnley play, or the lack of it.
Burnley always, always give the opposition plenty of chances.
They concede the most shots-per-game – 17 – and that rises to 19.6 away from home. As a result, expected goals ranks them as having the 2nd worst away defence in the league. In contrast, Bournemouth have the 7th best attack. And I really like their ‘fab four’ of Callum Wilson, Joshua King, David Brooks and Ryan Fraser. Between them they have 34 goals and 23 assists between them which is a great return. Fraser to Wilson, assist to goal, is actually the most prolific combination in the league this season.
I’ve seen a model rate Bournemouth 51% – or 1.95 – and whilst it feels along the right lines, I’m still wary of the 1.67 I mentioned earlier. So again as a similar approach above, I’m going to plant my flag in between and estimate The Cherries should be more in the 1.81 bracket.
- Arsenal -0.25 ~2.08 – 3 points
- Bournemouth -0.25 ~1.83 – 2.5 points
Host Ali Maxwell is joined by Nigel Seeley and Mark O’Haire to look ahead to the weekend’s football action, with four games analysed, all in different competitions. Nigel, a betting journalist and top tipster across multiple sports has some strong opinions on Watford vs Wolves in the FA Cup Semi Final, and Wimbledon vs Accrington in League One. Mark, the brains behind FBA-nominated site WeLoveBetting, takes a detailed look at Juventus vs Milan and Emmen vs Heerenveen, which contains his best bet of 2019!