Pro bettor and football analyst Mark Stinchcombe is back after the FA Cup break with a big bet on goals in the Burnley game and a couple of value selections for Spurs.
After a break for the FA Cup, the Premier League is back this weekend as the race for the title, top four and relegation heats up and it’s the latter I’m going to focus on first. This week sees a huge clash between 16th place Burnley and 19th place Fulham on Saturday at Turf Moor.
After back-to-back wins, Burnley have hoisted themselves out of the drop zone and our now two points clear of 18th. At Fulham, meanwhile, Claudio Ranieri has now presided over nine games with his record reading W2 D3 L4 and they are now four points adrift of safety. Unsurprisingly there isn’t a lot to separate them in the match odds market, but I think there is an opportunity to side with goals given the expectation here is only 2.35.
Sean Dyche’s Burnley now have some slight breathing room from the relegation zone.
These two sides have been very porous at the back this season, with the two worst defences in the league having conceded 42 goals (2.0pg) and 47 goals (2.24pg) respectively. Overall Burnley’s matches have seen 63 goals this season (3.0pg) and Fulham’s 66 (3.14pg) and both sides matches are averaging 3.10pg in expected goals. Things have been slightly less chaotic under Ranieri but Fulham’s total average xG is still averaging 2.86.
Since the beginning of last season, a spread of 59 games, Burnley’s matches have averaged 2.71 xG per-game so that’s the figure I’m prepared to work off here.
With the expectation just 2.35, we’re able to back over 2.0 goals at a competitive price with only zero or one goals returning a loss.
And I’m happy to have a big 2.5 point bet on over 2.0 goals here.
Next it’s off to Wembley as Tottenham play host to Man Utd. Tottenham are around the 2.2 mark which says they are only slightly better than Man Utd yet I believe they are much better than that. If we look at the expected points metric from the beginning of last season, Tottenham have accumulated 112.24 points compared to Utd’s 95.81.
This is a much bigger gulf than only ‘slightly better’.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has won four from four but from a relatively easy fixture list of Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle. But despite having the majority of possession, one thing which is alarming is the fact that they averaged over one expected goal against. There’s no doubt that Solskjaer has lifted the rigidness that clouded over the likes of Rashford, Pogba and Martial but defensively there is still an issue regardless of who plays in front of De Gea.
Harry Kane’s strike against Tranmere at the weekend put him on fourth on the all time top scorer list for Tottenham.
If we compare xG against since the beginning of last season, Tottenham have conceded 61.78 to Utd’s 74.08 despite the fact that Mourinho is seen as such a well-organised manager defensively.
I’ve checked a couple of models which are in agreement rating Spurs around a 1.95 chance so it’s an easy decision to side with them here, especially as we can back them -0.25.
There is a possibility we are seeing a massive improvement under Solskjaer, but on balance I’m happy taking Spurs -0.25 on the Asian Handicap and it’s worth noting Spurs won this fixture here 2-0 last season. I think a 1.5 bet here is more than justified.
Finally, my last bet also comes from ‘Super Sunday’, and the clash between Everton and Bournemouth at Goodison Park. It shouldn’t be any surprise I want to back goals, as I backed overs when Everton faced Spurs in a game that finished 2-6! Their matches have seen 62 goals this season (2.95pg) and it’s always reassuring when the xG is similar, with Everton’s average total returning 3.0pg.
Bournemouth are the gift that keeps on giving.
177 goals in 59 games (3.0pg), 34 of 42 matches over 2.5 goals (81%) and just seven clean sheets in 46 games.
They score for fun and concede for fun.
Their 3-3 draw last time out at home to Watford just encapsulates what an exciting team they are to watch as the goals flow at both ends. Crucially though expected goals since the beginning of last season also is returning 3.0pg so we can be very confident in the above data.
Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth side as ever love the Overs.
We should be very confident on this matchup, which finished 2-2 when these sides met in August (3.30 xG) , as since Bournemouth have been promoted these two have met seven times with a whopping 29 goals scored (4.14pg).
Over 2.75 goals? Yes please although it’s not a game to go mad with the bankroll on and I’m having a cautious 0.5 points here.
