Mark Stinchcombe - Over Under Over

9 min

Two losers from two last week and whilst I maintain they were both good value bets both teams really let me down in terms of their performance. However, I’m dusting myself down and am back with another three value plays.

Bournemouth took the lead against Burnley but ended up losing 3-1 having given away too many high quality chances. More on that later. Again I suffered with lineups as Unai Emery named a very defensive lineup leaving out both Aubameyang and Ramsey. Despite introducing them at half-time, they were that poor that they generated just 0.20 expected goals across seven shots.


Brighton host Bournemouth at the Amex on Saturday afternoon in something akin to the version below a ‘six-pointer’. It’s unlikely to happen but for both sets of fans with just 6 wins in 31 between them, they’ll both be anxiously looking over their shoulders at the relegation zone until mathematically safe.

I’ve mentioned a few times Brighton do their best work at home, and this season 22 of their 33 points have come at the Amex (67%). This looks a great opportunity for them against the most porous away defence in the league, with Bournemouth having shipped 37 goals in their 16 away games (2.31pg). That already looks factored in though with Brighton 2.34 favourites.

Overs and Bournemouth go hand in hand!

What doesn’t appear to have been taken into account is the goals angle, with just 2.55 goals anticipated in the match.

Bournemouth’s matches have seen 105 goals! That’s a rate of 3.18 per-game.

It’s now 39 of their last 54 matches have gone over 2.5 goals (72%). Odds of 2.11 suggest it has just a 47% chance. They have a host of defensive players missing and both keepers look susceptible to mistakes, which should be no surprise that it’s now just 10 clean sheets in 56. On the road, they’ve conceded 2+ in 10 of their last 11.

Based on average expected goals-per-game, it’s 2.80 v 3.0 which gives me great confidence long-term when the goal expectancy is only 2.55 here. Brighton won 3-1 at Bournemouth in the FA Cup in January and this fixture last season produced four goals (2-2) with the xG fully justifying that amount at 4.27.

Because of the low-ish goal expectancy, it means we can take advantage of the 2.25 goal line with the extra security of half stakes back if there are only two goals.


Following on with a similar theme regarding six-pointers takes us to Turf Moor as Burnley host Cardiff in what could be a nervy encounter. Burnley have eased relegation fears with two wins on the bounce but the Bluebirds are five points adrift of safety with six games to play.

I’m not expecting this to be a goal fest with two of the poorer teams in the league, particularly offensively, so I’m surprised we have a goal line of 2.5.

I can’t justify a low scoring game based on average goals-per-game etc. but that’s because they both concede shed loads of goals (60+ each). It’s going forward where they both aren’t great.

Burnley manager Sean Dyche has had a tough season.

Burnley only average 1.2 goals-per-game and Cardiff just 0.9. Cardiff themselves are the lowest away scorers in the league with just nine goals in 15 games. It should be no surprise though with both sides very shot shy. Burnley fire the least shots-per-game with just 9.7 and Cardiff the 3rd least with just 10.7.

In the reverse fixture, the line was 2.0 so it feels like too big a move here to go to 2.50. The game finished 2-1 to Burnley but their two goals were from a total expected goals value of 0.17! And I think we can definitely say that these two sets of players are below average.


Finally, I want to get with goals in a Southampton game again. They host Wolves and who knows what frame of mind they will be in after throwing away a 2-0 goal lead in last weekend’s FA Cup semi-final.

A lot has been made of Ralph Hasenhüttl’s vast improvement to Southampton but I’m inclined to disagree based on the underlying statistics.

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s Southampton side have been good for an ‘Over’ of late.

He’s overseen 17 games in the Premier League but his average expected points-per-game is actually lower than Mark Hughes’ 15 matches. That’s because they’re conceding over 1.5 expected goals-per-game. When you consider that and the fact that the goal expectancy is just 2.30, then for me there’s so much scope for overs.

Overall, Hasenhüttl’s matches have seen 47 goals at a rate of 2.76 per game, with expected goals rating 2.64 per-game. Wolves’ matches are also seeing a healthy xG rate of 2.70 per game. Given this, I’m very happy to attack the 2.0 line. Overall, 14 of Hasenhüttl’s 17 games have seen two or more goals and 21 of Wolves’ last 22 games. Only zero or one goals here will see a loss.

Recommended bets:

  • Over 2.25 goals Brighton v Bournemouth ~ 1.86 – 2 points
  • Under 2.50 goals Burnley v Cardiff ~ 1.85 – 0.5 points
  • Over 2.0 goals Southampton v Wolves ~ 1.79 – 2 points

Host Ali Maxwell is joined by Adrian Clarke and Mark O’Haire to look ahead to a big weekend in the Premier League – we take a tactical and punting look at Liverpool vs Chelsea, Crystal Palace vs Manchester City and Watford vs Arsenal. Adrian is a former professional footballer and current tactical analyst and pundit focusing on the top four tiers of English football. Mark O’Haire is a betting analyst and writer, the brains behind WeLoveBetting, and in charge of the pod’s punting selections.