Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from Germany and Switzerland.
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After 13 years of second-tier football, St Pauli are on the cusp of promotion back to the Bundesliga. Despite a gut-wrenching defeat at bitter rivals Hamburg last time out, the second-placed Die Kiezkicker still boast a four-point cushion over third with only two rounds of action to play – a victory over already-relegated Osnabruck this weekend will suffice.
With the match-up taking place at St Pauli’s renowned Millerntor-Stadion, I’m anticipating a strong display from the hosts. Fabian Hurzeler’s high-flyers have already posted 10 triumphs from 16 home league outings, whilst also boasting the division’s best defence – that includes seven home shutouts and a super-strong return against the league’s lesser lights.
Indeed, Die Kiezkicker have conceded only three goals in seven showdowns when welcoming bottom-eight opposition to the Millerntor, and on Sunday the worst attacking unit in the 2.Bundesliga comes to play. Rock-bottom Osnabruck have been nilled on 13 occasions this season, including in three of their most recent four league fixtures.
On Tuesday night, Osnabruck faced a do-or-die clash with Schalke, needing a victory to stave relegation off for another weekend. However, the Die Lila-Weisen were stuffed 4-0, conceding twice in the opening 10 minutes and allowing 23 shots – the visitors played like a side that had already accepted their fate.
It means Osnabruck have now suffered three 4-0 defeats, and a 3-0 reverse in their last seven encounters. The guests are giving up close to 2.40 goals per-game on their travels and offering very little in forward areas, making this a relatively straightforward selection on St Pauli to win and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at 2.1.
Young Boys remain in pole position in the Swiss Super League despite enduring a rocky spell immediately after the winter break. After suffering three straight losses in a week, the Bern club surprisingly dismissed Raphael Wicky as head coach back in March, claiming the team needed “fresh energy” for the run-in. U21 boss Joel Magnin took caretaker charge.
Results have gradually improved since – YBB have tabled W5-D2-L1 across their past eight, although Young Boys have remained as strong as ever at their Wankdorf Stadium base. Across the 2023/24 campaign, the hosts have posted 13 triumphs from 16 Super League home showdowns here, including 3-0, 5-1 and 4-2 thrashings in their last three such tussles.
That imperious record makes the current 2.00 on Young Boys just too big to dismiss on Saturday. The defending champions are averaging 2.75 goals in front of their own supporters, shipping just 11 goals across those aforementioned 16 home fixtures, whilst earlier this term they slammed their weekend visitors Lugano 4-1 in this very fixture.
Lugano have terrible memories of travelling to Bern – the guests have lost 10 of 13 winless trips to the Wankdorf Stadium, shipping 31 goals since 2017.
The visitors have shipped multiple goals in 10 of 17 away days thus far (W9-D2-L6), giving up 1.63 Expected Goals (xG) at top-half teams, allowing an average of nine attempts from inside the penalty area.
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