Matchbook’s Daniel Hussey and Micheál Deasy were joined by special guest Matt Tombs as they look at some key trends for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
You can check out our other Cheltenham ante-post previews by clicking here.
Cheltenham 2022 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Ante-Post Preview:
At the time of recording, the betting on the Matchbook Betting Exchange market was:
- Galopin Des Champs 3.55
- Bravemansgame 6.6
- Capodanno 9.8
- Ahoy Senor 14.5
- Fury Road 18.5
- Threeunderthrufive 22.0
- Beacon Edge 23.0
- Bob Olinger 27.0
- Stattler 27.0
- En Beton 27.0
- BAR 30.0
Matt Tombs’ Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends
Matt Tombs broke down three of the key trends of this race:
- In the last 10 renewals, 12 horses have run having achieved a Racing Post Rating over fences of 160+ over 2m 7 1/2f+. 6 have won – 140% profit. Bravemasngame (162) & Ahoy Senor (161) qualify
- Since Young Hustler won in 1993, all 88 horses that have had 2 or more full seasons over hurdles have been beaten. Negative for Fury Road & Beacon Edge
- All 22 Kauto Star winners have been beaten but 5 horses beaten in the Kauto Star this century have won – positive for Ahoy Senor, negative for Bravemansgame
Based on the above trends, Matt found Ahoy Senor (14.5) very interesting if he was to line up here. He could go down the Gold Cup route (similar to Coneygree in 2015) given his entry in this weekend’s Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham.
However, if he was to make it to post in the 3m novice race in March, expect a much-improved run from Kempton.
Daniel Hussey’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Tip: Capodanno (9.6)
Galopin Des Champs is the worthy favourite and should take all the beating here. However, his stablemate Capodanno could be worth backing at the current prices.
An impressive second behind Bob Olinger was a very decent performance over an inadequate trip and the step up to three miles at the Festival should really play to this horse’s strengths.
Micheál Deasy’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Tip: Farouk D’alene (33.0)
Deasy quite likes one at a price here.
Farouk D’alene was beaten by a short head by Master McShee at Limerick – costing favourite backers (including yours truly) a few bob over Christmas!
Nevertheless, a step-up in trip should be a plus and the Gigginstown-owned horse could be a long-shot contender for the Festival.
Recommended Cheltenham Bets:
- Capodanno – 1 unit @ 9.8 (Daniel Hussey)
- Farouk D’alene – 1 unit @ 33.0 (Micheál Deasy)
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