Special guest Matt Tombs joins Matchbook’s Daniel Hussey and Michaél Deasy for a look at this year’s Cheltenham Champion Chase Ante-Post market.
You can check out our other Cheltenham ante-post previews by clicking here and Matt’s latest Cheltenham Trends articles are here.
At the time of recording, the betting on the Matchbook Betting Exchange market was:
Predictability – front of market dominates but odds-on shots have poor record
Whilst 15 of the 21 renewals this century have gone to the front 2 in the market, only 3/10 odds-on shots won – Chacun Pour Soi (1.68), Defi Du Seuil (1.4), Douvan (1.22), Un De Sceaux, (1.67), Sizing Europe (1.8), Master Minded (1.8) & Moscow Flyer (1.83) were all beaten – potential negative for Shishkin
Arkle Winners
The previous Arkle winner have finished 11721121211 in the last 19 renewals (213% profit) – positive for Shishkin
Top Class Hurdles Form
Grade 1 winning hurdlers at around 2m are 6/22 this century (62% profit) and horses that recorded an RPR of 160+ in their most recent season over hurdles are 7/22 (79% profit) – positive for Shishkin
Matt was of the opinion that Chacun Pour Soi (12.0) was overpriced on the Matchbook Betting Exchange at the time of recording.
Watch his case below.
Champion Chase:@thespieler joins @DanielHussey2 & @mdeasy85 for our latest Cheltenham Ante-Post preview 🙌
Matt believes Chacun Pour Soi is overpriced ahead of his potential DRF run on Sunday 👀
Also available as a podcast 🎙️
𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵: https://t.co/dwEy8MyZCx 📺 pic.twitter.com/V81EHhGTwy
— Matchbook Betting Exchange (@TeamMatchbook) February 1, 2022
Maybe I’m putting myself under pressure to get a guaranteed winner on the ante-post team, or maybe Shishkin is just that good, but despite Matt’s very good case that Chacun is overpriced, I just couldn’t select him in this race.
I was dead against him in last year’s renewal, thinking Put The Kettle On had the course form, and the mare duly obliged. With the benefit of hindsight a slowly run race did not suit the Willie Mullins horse and a stronger pace may be what he needs to see him at his best.
However, he didn’t power up the hill and doesn’t seem to travel well after his poor showing in the Tingle Creek so I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Most sportsbooks go 4/6 (1.67) on Shishkin but you can get around the 2.0 mark on him with the Matchbook Betting Exchange.
I think there’s value in that price given the fact that it’s obviously his only target and how impressive he was at Ascot.
If Energumene got any bigger, then you could always be tempted that he can overturn the form but I’m siding with Shiskin to make it 3/3 at the Festival after his Supreme and Arkle win.
Bet Now
Deasy has been looking for the home run in these previews to date, with horses 33.0+ his usual selections.
So it was with great surprise that he decided to also put up Shishkin here – maybe he’s also feeling the pressure?
Despite the above case on the outsiders of the field, Deasy thought Shishkin was a great price, albeit he thinks he’ll be a similar one on the day if punters start taking him on with the two Mullins horses.
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