Rory Delargy has four lay bets for Matchbook Silver Cups Day at Kempton.
13:30 Matchbook Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier)
Ferrobin made all to win at Huntingdon last time in a fair time and will be well fancied here, but he’s twice found little for pressure prior to that trading very short in running after travelling very strongly, and that may find him out now he’s back in better company. There are several with very similar form here, and any cracks will be exploited.
Recommended: Lay Ferrobin @ 3.0 or shorter to win 7.5pts [max liability 15pts]
14:05 Get Switched On With Matchbook Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap)
Everything that finished in front of Envoye Special here at Christmas has won since, including unfortunate Arkle favourite Glen Forsa, and a look back at that race shows that Paul Nicholls’ young chaser looked a big threat at one point before he ran out of gas over a trip he probably fails to stay. With the handicapper dropping him 2lb and Nicholls dropping him in trip, he looks a fair bet to overturn odds-on favourite Timoteo.
Recommended: Back Envoye Special @ 7.0 or bigger to win 30pts [max liability 5pts]
Recommended: Back Envoye Special to place @ 2.1 or bigger to win 11pts [max liability 10pts]
14:40 Matchbook VIP Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle
My Way certainly does have his own way of doing things, and despite the fact that he’s good enough to be second in Grade 2 and Grade 3 company in France, he remains a maiden. He’s run well enough to be placed on his last two starts at Taunton and Warwick, and his second at the former venue was franked when Third Wind won the EBF Final at Sandown.
The key to him is that the handicapper has completely ignored his French form in allocating him a mark; given Paul Nicholls won this race two years ago with Brio Conti, this fella looks like he might have been laid out for this – he had no chance of getting into any Festival handicap, but needed to be entered to get in here.
Whether he finds for pressure in a tight finish remains to be seen, but he might not be hard pressed to win off this mark.
Recommended: Back My Way @ 4.0 or bigger to win 30pts [max liability 10pts]
16:25 Matchbook Casino Handicap Chase
Minella For Me appears to have the best credentials at first sight, but he was pretty lucky to win at Wetherby last time, the eventual third looking home for all money when blundering badly at the penultimate fence, and he hung on by just a nose from another who made a bad mistake at a crucial point. He is vulnerable having gone up in the weights, and jumped left when racing here in November. He’s also a free-going sort who doesn’t always leave much for the finish.
Recommended: Lay Minella For Me @ or 3.0 shorter to win 10pts [max liability 20pts]