We had great craic on our Cheltenham Preview Night so here’s host Tom Stanley summarising all the selections from our panel of Matt Tombs, Adele Mulrennan, Donn McClean, Sam Turner and Matchbook’s Micheál Deasy.
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Twelve Grade 1s plus other bets each day make this a monster Cheltenham preview.
We’ve gone early but I’m not sure too much is likely to change between now and next week and now we have the handicap entries it’s time to get stuck in.
A bumper Cheltenham Preview Night panel includes expert Matt Tombs who has dug out a relevant trend for each race that highlights underbet and overbet horses. Over to our expert panel…
Tuesday – Supreme Novices Hurdle
Unbeaten hurdlers are 3/45 in the last 19 renewals.
We kicked off our Cheltenham Preview Night with the Supreme. Matt is with Mighty Potter given he thinks the top few in the betting are likely to be overbet. Sam, Donn and Deasy are all with Dysart Dynamo…if he’s WIllie’s main Supreme horse. We may not find out until declaration time. Some concern from Adele about a few of these having the temperament for the race and she’s with Constitution Hill who has the professionalism to add to his class.
- Matt – Mighty Potter
- Adele – Constitution Hill
- Sam – Dysart Dynamo
- Donn – Dysart Dynamo or Sir Gerhard, whichever runs!
- Deasy – Dysart Dynamo if the Mullins no.1
Tuesday – Arkle Chase
All 7 Arkle winners this century who had a second season over hurdles recorded high-class hurdles form. Using Racing Post Ratings – Footpad 162, Un De Sceaux 164, Sizing Europe 168, My Way De Solzen 166, Moscow Flyer 170, Azertyuiop 162 & Tiutchev 157.
Matt’s angle is that Edwardstone might not be good enough but that’s not dissuading Adele. Bothe Deasy and Sam think the mare Riviere D’etel will reverse form with Blue Lord whilst Donn is with the bigger priced Magic Daze.
- Matt – Haut En Couleurs
- Adele – Edwardstone
- Sam – Riviere D’etel
- Donn – Magic Daze
- Deasy – Riviere D’etel
Tuesday – Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle is now much more predictable. Between 2002 – 2014, 8/13 winners went off 10.0 or bigger. Since then 6 of the 7 have gone off from the front 2 in the market.
Nobody is against the favourite though Sam does question her jumping if pushed to be picky. Whilst Appreciate It makes the race all the more interesting, the panel agree it’s a seriously tough ask for him to win this first up this year. Deasy thinks Epatante is a solid place option and will have a bit on her in the win market too.
- Matt – Honeysuckle
- Adele – Honeysuckle
- Sam – Honeysuckle
- Donn – Honeysuckle
- Deasy – Epatante (0.25 win/0.75 place)
Tuesday – Any Other Bets
Since the National Hunt Chase became a level-weights event in 2010, horses that have had:
· 8+ chase starts are 6/34 – 23pt (68%) profit
· 2 chase starts or less are 0/27
- Matt – Run Wild Fred (NQ4M)
- Adele – Marie’s Rock (Mares Hurdle)
- Sam – Run Wild Fred (NQ4M)
- Donn – Burning Victory (Mares Hurdle)
- Deasy – Our Power / Cloudy Glen (Ultima)
— Matchbook Betting Exchange (@TeamMatchbook) March 2, 2022
Wednesday – Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Grade 1 hurdle winners over 2m are 8/16 (86% profit)
Grade 1 hurdle winners at 2½m+ are 3/22 (66% loss)
Matt hammers home the point that speed is underbet here and thinks, like most of the panel, that Sir Gerhard is made for this race. Will he run?? Donn thinks whichever of he and Dysart Dynamo show up they’d be worth siding with. Sam gives a nod to Three Stripe Life who he feels may have snuck under the radar a little.
- Matt – Sir Gerhard
- Adele – Sir Gerhard
- Sam – Three Stripe Life (if he runs)
- Donn – Sir Gerhard or Dysart Dynamo
- Deasy – Depends on who runs (See Donns comment)
Wednesday – Brown Advisory Novices Chase
All 22 Kauto Star winners have been beaten but 5 horses beaten in the Kauto Star this century have won the Brown Advisory.
Great stat for this race as the favourite, and selection from three of the panel, Bravemansgame, would be the first Kauto Star winner to go and win this. The concern is that he shows his best, perhaps, on a flat track but that’s also a concern for Adele regarding Ahoy Senor. Donn is looking a little left field and thinks Beacon Edge is a fair price against the top of the market.
- Matt – Ahoy Senor
- Adele – Bravemansgame
- Sam – Bravemansgame
- Donn – Beacon Edge
- Deasy – Bravemansgame
Wednesday – Champion Chase
15 of the 21 renewals this century have gone to the front 2 in the market – yet 7 of the 10 odds-on shots have been beaten.
A good few shouts for Shishkin and it’s not easy to see him beaten. Interestingly none of the panel think Energumene can reverse form with Shishkin. Donn suggests Nube Negra is an option, mainly in the place market and Matt thinks Chacun Pour Soi is worth another go out of Ireland.
- Matt – Chacun Pour Soi
- Adele – Shishkin
- Sam – Shishkin
- Donn – Nube Negra
- Deasy – Shishkin
Wednesday – Any Other Bets
- Matt – No bet
- Adele – Potters Corner place (XC) / I Am Maximus place (Ballymore / Coral Cup)
- Sam – Coeur Sublime (Grand Annual)
- Donn – Tiger Roll (XC)
- Deasy – Before Midnight (Grand Annual) & Drop the Anchor (Coral Cup)
Thursday – Turners Novices Chase
Runners from the previous season’s Ballymore are 4/8 (28pt, 356% profit).
Two shouts for Bob Olinger (last year’s Ballymore winner) who Matt and Deasy think will be too fast and too good. Sam and Adele are in Galopin Des Champ’s camp, who looks set to line up here. Sam in particular feels he has plenty of speed and is the bet at current prices. Again Donn is looking further down the betting though may wait to see if the horse is declared.
- Matt – Bob Olinger
- Adele – Galopin Des Champs / L’Homme Presse if he runs
- Sam – Galopin Des Champs
- Donn – Saint Sam
- Deasy – Bob Olinger
Thursday – Ryanair Chase
11/14 winners as a Grade 1 from front 2 in the SP market – 18pt (59%) profit
9/14 Grade 1 renewals have been won by horses who made all (3) or most (6) of the running
Allaho fits the trend perfectly and Sam, Matt and Deasy can’t see past him. Deasy wants to back Janidil in the without the favourite market too. Adele has been taken with Dan Skelton’s comments on Shan Blue and thinks he’s underestimated just because he’s been off a while. Again Donn is looking further down the betting win and place.
- Matt – Allaho
- Adele – Shan Blue
- Sam – Allaho
- Donn – Eldorado Allen (win and place)
- Deasy – Allaho , Janidil (w/o fav)
Thursday – Stayers Hurdle
Class horses (single figure SP) stepping up from intermediate trips for 1st time are 4/7 this century – 24pt (336%) profit.
Different profiles getting the verdict here. Donn is with last year’s winner whilst Matt gives the up in trip Song For Someone the nod. The rest of the panel feel Klassical Dream had excuses last time and is value to make amends.
- Matt – Song For Someone
- Adele – Klassical Dream
- Sam – Klassical Dream (Song For Someone small w/pl)
- Donn – Flooring Porter
- Deasy – Klassical Dream
Thursday – Any Other Bets
- Matt – Frontal Assault (Kim Muir)
- Adele – Imperial Alcazar (Plate) & Party Central (Mares Novice)
- Sam – Imperial Alcazar (Plate)
- Donn – Frontal Assault (KM)& Dinoblue (MNH)
- Deasy – Tullybeg (Pertemps)
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— Matchbook Betting Exchange (@TeamMatchbook) March 2, 2022
Friday – Triumph Hurdle
Unbeaten hurdlers that have won a graded hurdle since the turn of the year are 8/21 since 2005 – P&L +31pts (148%)
Fascinating race and a strong looking renewal. Adele is going for Milton Harris’s horse who she feels isn’t getting the respect he deserves. Sam and Matt go head to head over the best Irish form and Donn is with the biggest price of all the selections, Il Etait Temps.
- Matt – Pied Piper
- Adele – Knight Salute
- Sam – Vauban
- Donn – Il Etait Temps
- Deasy – No bet
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
7-year-olds are 5/68 +27pts (40%)
A few shouts from Matt at chunky prices though he mentions he normally waits for declarations for a bet in this. Adele and Sam think the sizable Hillcrest is the one to be with whilst Donn and Deasy are of the opinion the Grade 1 Irish form is where to focus.
- Matt – Grand Jury / Eric Bloodaxe
- Adele – Hillcrest
- Sam – Hillcrest
- Donn – Minella Crooner
- Deasy – Minella Cocooner (if he runs)
Boodles Gold Cup
Horses beaten in their first Gold Cup are 1/85 this century.
Well, this isn’t a great trend for the current favourite A Plus Tard but Matt does point out that this year may not be the strongest renewal. He then puts up Asterion Forlonge. Deasy and Adele are with the chief UK threat Protektorat whilst Sam thinks everything about Galvin’s profile is right for the race. Donn is of the opinion that Minella Indo comes good in the spring and he thinks he’s a fair price to win this again.
- Matt – Asterion Forlonge
- Adele – Protekorat
- Sam – Galvin
- Donn – Minella Indo
- Deasy – Protekorat
Friday – Any Other Bets
- Matt – Scarlet And Dove (Mares Chase)
- Adele – Zambella (Mares Chase)
- Sam – West Cork (County)
- Donn – Mount Ida (Mares Chase)
- Deasy – West Cork is best Cork (County)
The last 13 times Willie Mullins has run more than 1 and had a first string in the market, on 12 of those 13 occasions the first string hasn’t even done the best of the Mullins team.
- Matt – Lay Facile Vega (Bumper)
- Adele – Lay Tiger Roll (XC)
- Sam – Place lay Energumene (CC)
- Donn – Lay Edwardstone (Arkle)
- Deasy – Lay Facile Vega (Bumper)
- Matt – Ahoy Senor (Brown Advisory)
- Adele – Constitution Hill (Supreme)
- Sam – Coeur Sublime (Grand Annual)
- Donn – Minella Indo (Gold Cup)
- Deasy – Allaho (Ryanair) & Sir Gerhard Double (Supreme/Ballymore)
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Best of luck!
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