Adam Chernoff - NFL Week 4

9 min

Adam Chernoff bounced back in style last week and is hitching his wagon to an NFC East team this week!

It was all positive in Week 3 with both wagers getting results for readers of the column. After the double bet win on Monday night, the season record moves to 2-3 (-1.35x).

We get back in the black with a single wager this Sunday.

Not Buying In On ‘Danny Dimes’ Just Yet

It has been exactly five months to the day that Daniel Jones was drafted sixth overall by the New York Giants.

Lest we forget, the outrage over the drafting of the Duke quarterback hit extremes I am unsure we have witnessed before in NFL media. The widespread ridicule that followed the pick carried reporters, radio broadcasters, beat writers, columnists and social media talking heads through the downtime in May and into the summer months.

Now after 103 offensive plays between the preseason and regular season, the tune has changed entirely.

According to many of the same folks that buried the Giants organization for drafting Jones, not only does the rookie quarterback give them hope to make the playoffs, but management is now in question for not having him start the opening week. Coined with the fitting nickname of “Danny Dimes” there is hope again in New York.

A missed 34 yard field goal by Bucs kicker Matt Gay allowed to Giants to escape with a victory in Tampa.

But what does the betting market think?

Well, CG, charged with putting the lookahead lines in the summer in place (mainly for marketing purposes, but betting was open on this) priced the New York Giants as 2 point road favourites at home this week back in May.

More recently, Las Vegas casinos posted a lookahead line for this game of New York -3 one week ago. What is important to note is that Daniel Jones was announced as the starting quarterback six hours before the look-ahead lines were posted.

Where did the market open this week?

New York Giants -2.5.

So, after all of this hype, all the talk, the comeback win and the Redskins embarrassment, the bookmakers not only disregarded the Daniel Jones news, they moved against it.

It was only after the opening price was posted this [Tuesday] morning that the price moved back up the price point of -3.

So, what gives? The big thing to note here from a handicapping perspective is that the story is not Daniel Jones – at all.

Giants Secondary = Garbage

The story is the Giants secondary, and there are two ways we can put things into context.

The easiest way is to throw out a blanket statistic. If you believe in the Pro Football Focus grades, then it is worth noting that after three weeks, the Giants coverage grade is 32.0 which is the third-lowest grade of any NFL team in the past decade. The second is to use a comparable.

Looking at yards per pass, then it is worth noting that the Giants average allowance per attempt against of 10.1 yards is only 0.1 yards per pass better than Miami and more than a full yard (!) WORSE than the 30th placed team (Oakland). The third is to look down to down to try negating some noise. The Giants have allowed teams to pass for a 53% success rate which ranks 28th in the NFL. But how do you tell if that matters for this game? It all sounds one-sided, but is it actionable?

In my opinion, it is actually worse than it looks.

Giants Head Coach Pat Shurmur (pictured right) still has some massive issues in his secondary.

The Giants have played the Cowboys, Bills and Buccaneers who rank 2nd, 21st and 26th in passing grade, 2nd, 12th and 16th in yards per pass attempt, 1st, 14th and 25th in passing success rate and 1st, 19th and 31st in passing efficiency. Overall that is the 7th easiest schedule of passing offenses, and the Giants secondary has performed to a historically poor level. Washington comes into New York earning a 52% success rate on passes (6th), 7.0 yards per pass (15th) and the third-highest pass play calling rate of any team in the league at 74%.

Case Keenum struggles under pressure dipping from an 84% adjusted completion percentage inside a clean pocket (9th) to 60% when pressured (19th). The Giants enter this week with the lowest pass rush grade in the league.

Adam feels that Redskins QB Case Keenum should have a relatively easy ride against a non-existent Giants pass rush.

While one single advantage is not enough to warrant a wager, this handicap can wrap up on the injury report.

The Giants lost linebackers Alec Ogletree and Tae Davis to injuries last game (both doubtful to play Sunday which is reinforced by signing former player Nathan Stupar this morning) which should enable the Redskins to have some sort of ground game resemblance for the first time this season. The loss of Saquon Barkley can’t be understated nor can the potential absences of Latimer and Fowler which the new increased emphasis on the passing game.

At three points these two teams end up priced to an equal price point.

It is difficult for me to get to that conclusion when weighing out all of the numbers to see that the Redskins rank higher, against a more difficult schedule almost across the board.

Add in the market perception being extremely divided and bookmakers not responding to it one bit with the injuries, and the Redskins at +3 (albeit an expensive +3) are a nice look on Sunday.

Recommended Bets

  • Washington Redskins +3 (1.91). Risking 1.20x