Brad Allen: Dirty Birds To Upset The Rams

7 min

Brad is back with three more bets for Week 7 of the NFL season including the home dog in Atlanta.

1-2 last week for -1.62 units and dropping us to +0.83 units for the season. Week 7 looks to be the toughest week so far for betting with some very shrewd lines, but we will do our best to snaffle out some value.

Falcons To Soar On Sunday Night

First up we’ll have some Falcons +3.

For starters, we have the better offense here with the Dirty birds 5th in passing success rate this year. There is some concern about this success coming in garbage time, but Football Outsiders DVOA metric accounts for gamestate and still makes the Falcons the better offense in this matchup (14th vs 17th)

The concern is the Falcons defense which has been obviously abysmal. However, I think it’s worth noting they’ve given up 30 plays of 20+ yards (yes, 30). That’s the most in the league and has accounted for 40% of the production they’ve given up. Essentially there’s been too many coverage busts.

The good news for us is that this type of breakdown is easily fixable and more likely to improve than if the Falcons were just getting beat down after down.

Say what you will about their defence but the Atlanta offense under quarterback Matt Ryan has been on fire of late.

They’ve also been unlucky with sacking the opposing QB. They have just five sacks through six games, which is fewer than six players have personally! However, they are 22nd in pressure rate, which is more indicative of their true talent, and fifth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate at 54.2%.

That suggests the rush isn’t getting home because the coverage isn’t holding up long enough and with a few less blown coverages, the Falcons D could look like the 22nd ranked unit rather 31st. This probably too long to spend on the Falcons, but hopefully, you know my view on the Rams by now. This is an 8-9 win team visiting a 7-win team and shouldn’t be laying a full field goal.

Back To The Well With Philly

Next, I’m have a similar bet on the Eagles getting 3 on the road.

This is essentially a wager on the injury report. At the time of writing, it looks likely Dallas will be without Amari Cooper and two All-Pro offensive tackles in Tyron Smith and La’el Collins. Slot receiver Randall Cobb is also questionable, as are both starting cornerbacks. Not #good.

I could only find splits through the end of 2018, but with Amari on the field, Dak passes for around 60 extra yards a game, and there’s a similar drop-off without Tyron Smith.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is sure to be without some key weapons on Sunday night.

Add them together and chuck a few more injuries in and I’m not sure what this offense will look like, and specifically whether it will be able to take advantage of the Eagle’s weakness in the secondary. If you need reasons why I like the Eagle’s offense, please see last week’s column (where we spoofed a couple of units away on them).

But we are undeterred!

Shootout In Seattle

For our final bet, we will take over 49 in Seattle.

The concerns here, of course, is that both teams are deeply in love with running the football and could slow the game down. However, I think both teams are going to be so efficient moving the ball that one less possession each won’t matter.

Seattle is second in passing success rate and 2nd in explosive plays, and they go against a Baltimore D ranked 22nd by DVOA despite facing the 5th easiest schedule.

Even the Browns scored 40 on this rabble!

Russell Wilson has made Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer look like a genius this season!

On the other side, the Baltimore offense is 4th by DVOA and 4th by EPA added and goes up against a Seahawks stop unit that ranks dead last in QB Hit Rate (7.9%) and 18th by DVOA despite an easy schedule.

Lamar should have time to sit in the pocket and hit Hollywood Brown deep for some big plays, forcing Russell to come right back at ‘em.

Recommended Bets

  • Falcons +3: 1 unit @ 1.89
  • Eagles +3: 1 unit @ 1.88
  • Seatte/Baltimore over 49: 1 unit @ 1.94