Ryan Cahill - Paul To Prevail In Saudi Showdown

6 min

Matchbook’s resident Boxing guru Ryan Cahill breaks down this weekend’s highly intriguing bout between Jake Paul and Tommy Fury. 

A couple of years ago I would never have imagined I would be backing former Youtube sensation Jake Paul in a fight with a man whose last name is Fury. But here we are.

On Sunday evening in Saudi Arabia, we should finally see the pair meet in the ring after what has felt like an age of fight cancellations and postponements.

Jake “The Problem Child” Paul is a relative novice to the sport, boasting a 6-0 (4KO’s) record he has shown progression in each of his fights to date.

However, his record has consisted of aging MMA fighters and the odd Ex Basketballer, often used to slight his success in the ring.

The Ohio native currently fighting out of Puerto Rico has dedicated the last 4 years of his life to training full time and it does show, he will never be a bonafide world champion of course but I can think of a lot less talented 26-year-old pros.

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His knockdown of MMA legend Anderson Silva in the 8th round of their fight showed just how far he has come, a lovely combination followed by a crisp right hand had the Brazillian sitting on the canvas.

In that fight, he also showed the ability to fight into the later rounds. He has a good right straight hand which is by far his best punch, although his footwork leaves a lot to be desired, though, it has improved massively from his first pro bout.

The general narrative is Paul is a gimmick, a Youtuber, and a pretender while Fury is the thoroughbred boxer born to fight.

Paul may be a gimmick but Tommy Fury is certainly not the blue-chip prospect that many once thought. He is a Fury by name, but not by nature.

Fury comes into the fight with an 8-0 (4Ko’s) record, his strength of schedule in that time has been questionable at best.

I think if you compare the strength of the schedule between the two Jake Paul has beaten the better opponents.

Fury has flashed promise in parts, he did once stop tough journeyman Callum Ide back in 2019 (Ide only stopped 4 times in 35 defeats).

While his profile has grown considerably outside the ring since then,  his performances in it have stuttered. Generally looking slow, stiff, and quite frankly disinterested.

The general air I get from Tommy Fury is he doesn’t care much for Boxing, thrust upon him in a hand-me-down fashion from Brother Tyson and Cousin Hughie.

Unsurprisingly for me, but a shock to many. Jake Paul is the 1.8 favourite, with Fury trading at 2.42 at the time of writing.

Paul would be a bet for me if as he was in the previous times this has been scheduled an underdog.

It is hard to back Paul at current prices straight up, however, so I have tried to make the price chunkier by opting for a Jake Paul by decision or technical decision bet.

I feel this is a fight likely to go long, Paul has been the full distance in 2 of his last 3, and Fury in each of the last 3. As both have ever so slightly started to up the competition level, the finishes have dried out.

I expect “The Problem Child’s” grit, determination and quite simply his better boxing ability to guide him to a decision against Fury.

Recommended Bets

  • Jake Paul by Dec/Tech Dec @ 3.45
  • Go The Distance? Yes @ 2.04

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