Brad is back with three more bets for Week 15 including a total play in the AFC South
1-2-2 last week for -1.54 units which takes us to +5.99 units for the season.
Unders The Play In KC
First up this week, we will have some under 45.5 in Kansas City. As I’ve mentioned before, we want to be looking at the under when teams play each other a second time, as familiarity seems to help the defense figure out what the offense wants to do and thus stymy it.
According to Bet Labs, blind backing divisional unders in December is 284-216-12, good for a 10.5% ROI.
I also think the on-field match-up trends towards a lower scoring game with two top-ten pass defences by DVOA and two offenses which may not be as good as public perception.
In the first six weeks of the season, the Kansas City offense was 26% better than average by DVOA. Since Mahomes returned in Week 10, they’ve only been 15% better than average, with tape grinders suggesting Mahomes doesn’t trust his interior O-line and is throwing off the back foot too often and bailing out of pockets too early.
He is generating a negatively graded throw on 14.5% of attempts this year after being under 10% during his 2018 MVP season.
He’s also nursing injuries to his knee and hand potentially prompting a more conservative gameplan.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock might not be the second coming he is being proclaimed as since he torched the Texans last week.
He got away with several risky throws and through 61 dropbacks this season, PFF have him graded below Marcus Mariota and just ahead of Dwayne Haskins.
I think it’s feasible he is also shut down by this sneaky-good KC pass defense and we see a lot more punts than this 45.5 number might suggest.
If you want to remain excited about Drew Lock do not watch the all22 of his game against HOU and just watch replay the first TD throw over and over again. Lot of bad process that ended up working out.
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) December 11, 2019
Send Green Bay Packing
Next up give me some Bears +4.
The Packers are arguably the most overrated team in the league at this point.
It’s something of a crude metric, but the Packers are 24th in net yards per play this season. Over the last month, they are being outplayed by the Bears in success rate (47%-45%) and in yards per play (5.2-4.8).
The Bears offense suddenly looks revitalised, in part because Trubisky is running again and converting crucial third downs and redzone opportunities.
We already know the Bears defense is the superior unit, so put it all together and I suspect we have the better team getting four points.
It’s also worth mentioning this game is likely to be the coldest of the year so far.
I think that strengthens our bet some more with the four points worth more in a low-scoring game.
It also might put added emphasis on the run game, where Green Bay has the 26th ranked rush defense by DVOA, compared to 11th for Chicago. The Bears will also get back run thumper Akiem Hicks for this one, giving us another micro-edge.
Finally, I’ll take some over 51 in the Texans/Titans game.
This number has got away from us a touch but all signs point to a shootout.
Starting with the new ‘best QB to ever live’, Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill ranks first among quarterbacks in PFF’s most predictive metrics: clean-pocket rating, standard dropback rating and no-play-action passer rating
He also tops Ben Baldwin’s DAKOTA metric and leads the second best offense in the NFL by DVOA since he took over. He faces a defense that has ranked dead-last in pass rush win rate since JJ Watt got injured and whose pass coverage ranks 27th in the NFL.
Just to reiterate: you have arguably the league’s most efficient offense going against a defense that cannot rush the passer or cover.
I think the Titans top 30 handily.
This puts the onus on the Texans to keep up. Well, they just so happen to have the 5th best offense in the NFL by success rate and face a defense likely missing three cornerbacks, and who were below average by DVOA even before the injuries.
I would not be surprised if both teams finish in the thirties here.
- Chiefs/Broncos under 45.5: 1 unit @ 1.95
- Bears +4: 1 unit @ 1.95
- Titans/Texans over 51: 1 unit @ 1.98