Brad is back with four bets for Week 9 of the NFL season including a 2 unit bet in Baltimore.
A better return last Sunday as we were 2-1 for +1.3 units, taking us to -0.87 units for the season. We also had some nice CLV on two out of three bets, which is good to see.
Onto Week 9.
Ravens Flock To Fly High On Sunday Night
First up we’re staying on brand and taking the Ravens because #defensedoesntmatter. The Patriots defense is of course very good but has faced by far the easiest schedule in the league. The list of QBs they’ve faced includes Josh Rosen, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Colt McCoy, and Sam Darnold.
Its arguable the Browns and Baker Mayfield are the best offense they’ve faced this season, and the Browns rank 26th in offensive DVOA this season!
Cleveland still managed to outgain the Pats by 5.3 yards per play to 4.8 on Sunday, thanks mainly to a rushing attack which had 159 yards at 7.2 yards per clip. Being soft against the run is hardly the ideal weakness when faced with the best rushing offense in the NFL off a bye.
So I think we will see the Ravens move the ball, and I’m also a seller on the Pats offense, which ranks just 15th in DVOA this season – remember that number factors in all the garbage time New England has played. The Baltimore offense is materially better at 7th in DVOA.
Baltimore’s defense meanwhile is on the rise, improving from 30th in DVOA in September, to 6th in October. This week will also be the first time Baltimore can put three excellent starting CBs on the field in Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphries and recently-acquired Marcus Peters.
I don’t think these Pats WRs will be able to separate, and we could see some exotic blitzes out of the Ravens
Remember too, this is probably the first time all season that the Patriots don’t have an enormous coaching edge.
When including the bye and homefield, this line suggests the Patriots are 6.5 points better than Baltimore.
I’m not having it.
Dallas To Go Big
Next up it’s over 48.5 in Giants/Cowboys for me.
I have the Cowboys as a dead nut over team – they have the best offense in the NFL by DVOA and should be fully healthy with both tackles and Amari Cooper firing here.
Against PFF’s 26th ranked defense, I see no reason the Cowboys won’t go nuts here.
Can the Giants chip in? I think so.
The Giants are middle of the pack (18th) in offensive success rate and face what appears to be a genuinely bad Cowboys D (18th in defensive DVOA despite the fifth easiest schedule).
I think we could be in for a shootout on Monday night.
Back the Bucs
Next, I’m in on Tampa +6 at Seattle.
I haven’t seen a more startling stat line this season than Matt Schaub 39/52 for 462 yards at 8.8 YPA.
How bad is this Seattle defense??
They are getting absolutely zero pressure (30th by PFF pass rush grade) and face a decent offensive line here (8th by PFF grade), suggesting Jameis should have time to cook in the pocket. That’s going to leave Mike Evans and Chris Godwin downfield on the Seahawks secondary and there’s only one winner there. This is also a Seahawks team that doesn’t put other teams away.
There was that 7 point win last week against the Falcons, a 1 point win v the Bengals, 2 points v the Steelers and 4 points v the Browns.
Pete Carroll still thinks his defense is good and so tries to salt the game away in the second half and play defense but he is unfortunately mistaken.
Good luck trying to run the ball against the NFL’s best run defense too. I think this matches up perfectly for a close game and six points is a gift.
Wrong Team Favoured Klaxon
Finally, I’m taking the Pittsburgh Steelers at home v the Colts at odds against.
Lets start with the QBs. The two aren’t so far part by Ben Baldwin’s proprietary metric which combines EPA/play and accuracy adjusted for depth (Brissett 15th and Rudolph 19th). Its broadly similar for the offenses as a whole where the Colts rate just slightly ahead of Pittsburgh on PFF and Football Outsiders.
However, there is a chasm in these two defenses, where the Colts are 25 in DVOA despite an easier-than-average schedule, while the Steelers are 9th, despite a slightly harder schedule.
Chuck it all together, and these teams are basically equal. In fact, Massey Peabody has the Colts a half point better, yet this line says they are probably 3-3.5 points better. Grab the value on the Steelers here.
- Baltimore +3.5: 2 units @ 1.87
- NYG/Dalls over 48.5: 1 unit @ 2.01
- Tampa +6: 1 unit @ 1.88
- Pittsburgh ml: 1.5 units @ 2.05