Brad is back after a profitable week nine with three more bets in week ten
Three wins and a push last week gave us 3.8 units profit and lifted us to +2.97 on the season. Huzzah. Unfortunately, the week 10 card looks to be the toughest of the season so far, so let’s tread carefully.
Another Over On Monday Night
We will open with the over in Seattle vs San Francisco.
This starts with the Seattle defense which is flat out abysmal – the 29th ranked unit in the NFL per PFF with a near-non existent pass rush. San Fran looks likely to get starting offensive tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey back this week, along with fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
In other words, the Niners will be whole again and should get whatever they want. Remember Kyle Shanahan’s scheme is basically designed to demolish this Cover 3 defense.
So the question is can Russ and the Seahawks keep up?
I suspect so. This is PFF’s number one-ranked offense and third by Football Outsiders’ metrics.
I’m also not buying this SF defense as historically great (#defensedoesntmatter). They’ve played the third easiest schedule of opposing offenses to date and will be without Kwon Alexander at MLB in this one for the first time.
When the Seahawks play teams that can force them to throw, we get fireworks, and I expect more of the same on Monday night.
Goff On The Road = Unders
Next up it’s under 44 in Rams/Steelers.
There is one matchup that leaps off the page in this one; the Steelers’ number-one ranked pass rush (per PFF) against a Rams blocking unit that ranks 29th in pass protection.
Jared Goff’s struggles on the road and under pressure are well documented and this looks to be a horrible spot for him.
It’s also worth noting the Rams O-line is much better at run-blocking (10th in NFL) and Sean McVay appears to be aware of that. The Rams have become significantly more run-heavy in the last month, falling from the 10th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) to 20th highest (54%). There’s nothing better than moving clock for unders.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t fancy the chances of Mason Rudolph (PFF’s 32nd-graded passer out of 35 quarterbacks) and his pathetic 7.7-yard average depth of target. He faces a Rams D ranked top six by both FO and PFF, that will be even better with recently-acquired Jalen Ramsey on the outside. The Steelers also play at a crawl, with their games averaging the fifth-fewest combined snaps.
Expect lots of runs, dump-offs and a snoozer in Pittsburgh.
How About Them Cowboys!
For our final bet, I’m going back to the well with the Dallas Cowboys.
If you’ve listened to the last couple of week on the Matchbook pod, you’ll know I love this offense – its currently the best in the league per FO’s numbers, and that’s despite missing key pieces for several games this season.
With a healthy offensive line, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the outside – not to mention Dak and Zeke – all healthy, this is a near-unstoppable unit.
And I certainly don’t expect that to change against the Vikings who are 24th in both passing and rushing success rate allowed, despite a middling schedule.
So why the team total here, I hear you ask.
Well, I just don’t know what to expect on the other side of the ball, starting with Kirk Cousins. ‘Captain Kirk’ is 5-27 against teams with a winning record, 6-13 in prime time and 15-26-2 on the road.
I’m sure some of the smart kids would say this type of profiling is nonsense but it seems to me he has a pretty clearly defined ceiling.
That said, I also don’t trust the Cowboys defense. These guys have faced the fourth easiest schedule of offenses and are STILL 22nd in success rate allowed! For comparison the only three teams that have had easier schedules rank 1st, 2nd and 3rd in success rate allowed. (defense doesn’t matter btw). What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? No idea. Let’s stick to the other side of the ball.
- Niners/Seahawks over 46.5: 1 unit at 1.9
- Rams/Steelers under 44: 1 unit at 1.92
- Cowboys team total over 25.5: 1.15 units at 1.86