Andy Newton
1 week ago - 23 minute read

Newmarket Trends and Tips: Saturday 14th October

Knowledge is power so we’ve compiled a number of key stats for the big horse races ahead to give you a betting edge. Take two or so minutes to read up on the big trends and you can guarantee you will make better informed and more profitable decisions today. What’s not to like? Read on and cash in.

More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 14th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn & Dewhurst Stakes.

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.

So as always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

13:50 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
9/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/10 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Won no more than twice before
8/10 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
5/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/10 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
0/10 – Winners from stall 1

Surprisingly we’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings of this race so Dubai Empire will be trying to put that right, but really being rated 20lbs+ behind most of these then it’s unlikely. The Mark Johnston camp took this in 2013 so their Dee Ex Bee will be looking to add to their record. After a good debut earlier this year he lost his way a bit in the middle part of the season, but bounced back to form with a gusty win at Epsom last time out so does enter calculations. However, you still feel more is needed based on that run, especially now also being back in Listed company. Frankie Dettori has won the race in 2011 and 2016 – he rides the John Gosden-trained Westerland here and with six career runs heads into the race as the most experienced. Yes, the yard won this race 12 months ago with Coronet, but he’s another that despite winning last time out would need to step up a fair bit from that Handicap victory to take this Listed race. It’s also worth noting Gosden runs Graffiti Master. Kew Gardens is another that will be popular coming from the Aidan O’Brien yard and will certainly find this easier than recent runs in Group company. Yes, he’s only a maiden winner, but has fair form already in the bank to go close, while the Richard Hannon stable have a decent chance with their 102-rated Albishr. This 2-year-old has already run well at Listed level and the step back to a mile will suit, but I’d be worried he ran poorly at the track last time so has a bit to prove on that score. So, it might be worth taking a chance on RASTRELLI. From the Godolphin team that also have a good record in this, plus the Charlie Appleby yard have a 26% strike-rate with their 2 year-olds at the track. A course winner last time too is a plus and despite having a bit to find on the ratings looks a horse on the up that is clearly thought capable of stepping up to Listed grade.

14:25 – Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

12/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Had won over at least 7f before
11/12 – Had raced at least twice before
10/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/12 – Won last time out
8/12 – Foaled in Feb or March
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/12 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 3-5

Zabriskie and Flag Of Honour head here flying the flag of the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard so are sure to be popular. Both come here off the back of good recent wins too and are certainly ones for the shortlist. Of the two, FLAG OF HONOUR looks the more interesting though, having won by an easy 4 ½ lengths last time out at Naas, and also having a Derby entry for next season is a horse that connections clearly hold in high regard. The step up from 7f to a mile also looks likely to bring out even more improvement from this Galileo colt, while he ticks most of the main trends. Add in that he is out just 10 days after that recent win suggests he’s come on again for that run and could be smart. Wafy and Purser are others to note that also caught the eye when winning well last time out, but the main danger to the selection can come from another Godolphin horse – Ghaiyyath. This Charlie Appleby runner was a decent winner over course and distance last time out and is actually the only proven winner over this 1m trip in the field, while it goes without saying his track experience is a huge plus too. He got the job done by an easy 5 lengths last time and although that was only a maiden he could not have been more impressive. He’s also got some fancy entries in the future that include the Racing Post Trophy and next season’s Epsom Derby.

15:00 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Raced at least 3 times that season
14/15 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
13/15 – Placed in their last race
12/15 – Won over 7f previously
11/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (6) last time out
10/15 – Won at least 3 times previously
10/15 – Won their last race
10/15 – Won a Group race previously
9/15 – Won by an Irish-based stable
8/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
7/15 – Favourites that won
5/15 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/15 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
0/15 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 9 of the last 11 runnings
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 3

The likes of Emaraaty, U S Navy Flag and Seahenge are all interesting runners that head here off the back of decent wins so command respect. However, all three are likely to be playing for places behind the promising EXPERT EYE. This 2 year-old comes from the Sir Michael Stoute team and he went into everyone’s note book after an impressive 4 ½ length win in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. He’s not been out since as connections are clearly taking their time with him which is another clear sign they think he could go to the very top. Yes, he runs at the Newmarket track for the first time and if the ground got any softer these are both slight unknowns, but it’s hard to fault the manner of his victories – both at Goodwood last time and on debut at Newbury. He’ll be a warm order here, but even those odds might look value after this! Of those at a bigger price, the busy Cardsharp is yet to finish out of the first three and might again sneak into a place at a fair price.

15:40 – Betfred Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

14/15 – Aged 4 or older
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
12/15 – Had run within the last 2 months
12/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/15 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
10/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 or older
9/15 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
9/15 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Won by a NH trainer
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won last time out
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

With 34 runners then it’s another super-tough renewal of this popular staying flat race. Plenty of decent trends to take into the contest though – like 12 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-1 or less in weight. That’s a decent 80% return on this stat alone and if that’s to be repeated then the top 12 on the card – including the likes of Who Dares Win, who was a good winner of the Cesarewitch Trial last time out, and the consistent Endless Acres. It’s also a race that attracts a lot of runners from the National Hunt arena, with 7 of the last 15 winners coming from a jumps-based yard. With just two winning favourites since 1993 then it’s also been a top race for the bookmakers and a tricky one for punters, but it is worth pointing out that just over half (7 from 15) market leaders have been placed in the race – which is not a bad return continuing the competitive nature of the race. At this stage the Roger Charlton-trained Withhold and the John Quinn-trained John Constable are to the fore of the betting, but so is the Willie Mullins-trained LAGOSTOVEGAS. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride this 5 year-old so that’s another good sign, while recent wins over hurdles mean the horse heads here in tip-top order and full of confidence. Draw 5 looks ideal too and with just 8-12 in weight has got in here on a nice mark. Others to note regarding the key trends are BYRON FLYER, who is closely-matched with the only 3 year-old in the race – Time To Study – but looks the better value. This Ian Williams runner has finished second the last four times, but is a tough sort that rarely runs a bad race and does seem to have many of the key trends on his side. While DUKE STREET is another interesting runner that should be a lot fitter for a recent third over fences at Worcester. He stays a lot further than this 2m2f trip over the sticks so we can expect connections to make full use of that, while the useful Hector Crouch takes off a handy 3lbs from the saddle.

York Horse Racing Trends

14:05 – The Coral App Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just four previous running
No winning favourite yet
3 of the last 4 winners were aged 3 years-old
All 4 previous winners returned 9/1 or shorter
Trainer Hugo Palmer has a 22% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 111 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John Quinn is just 2 from 60 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

Just a handful of recent runs to go on here, but with no winning favourite in the last 4 years then it’s been a race that punters have found hard to get right. It’s interesting that 3 of the last 4 winners were aged 3 years-old though so there is a pattern building-up here, while with trainer John Gosden Hugo Palmer (22%) having good strike-rate at the track with their 3 year-olds then their runner –ANYTHINGTODAY – looks interesting. He was last seen running third (of 19) in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap last time at Newbury and off just a 2lb higher mark has been given every chance to go well again. His only poor run of the season came at Ascot last month, but take that run out and he’s not been out of the first three! As mentioned the Palmer stable do well at the track with their 3 year-olds and being a 3 year-old gets a handy weight pull from the older horses. Syphax and Law And Order are the only other 3 year-olds in the race so are worthy of a second look too. If you can forgive Big Country’s last run when down the field in the Cambridgeshire then he’s another to consider, but it could be that a hard season is starting to catch up with him and he might just be in the handicapper’s grip now. Other things to note are that the Kevin Ryan and John Quinn yards don’t have the best of records at the track with their older horses so Weekend Offender (Ryan) and Speed Company (Quinn) might be best avoided. The final that gets a positive shout is the CHELSEA LAD. This 4 year-old returned to form last time out when 4th of 34 in the Cambridgeshire and off just a pound higher can go well. The slightly longer trip will help as he was staying on at the death that day, while at the time of writing the Martyn Meade yard have sent out 3 winners from their last 6.

14:40 – Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f

14/14– Had raced within the last month
13/14 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
12/14 – Foaled in March or later
12/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/14 – Had never raced at York before
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
9/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Winners from stall 2
3/14 – Filly winners
3/14 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/14 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/14 – Ridden by David Allen

Daddies Girl is improving at a rate of knots at the moment so has to be considered, but this is another big step up in grade so more is needed – she could still go well though from those at bigger prices. Dance Diva and Staxton have good form in the bank in better races than this so should also make their presence felt – especially Staxton who hails from the Tim Easterby yard that have a decent record in this race. While, getting weight, Mark Johnston’s Rebel Assault is another to note. However, the clear form pick based on the official ratings is SHABAABY. This 2-year-old dotted-up by 7 lengths in a conditions race at Doncaster last time out and with that only being his third career run there could be a lot more to come. Yes, his recent wins came on soft ground, but has gone ok on a quicker surface in the past too and really his form looks that much better than the others, while the bad news for the others is that there should also be more to come. It Don’t Come Easy and the unexposed Barton Mills are the final ones to have on your radar.

15:15 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

14/14 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
14/14 – Had won at least 3 races before
13/14 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
13/14 – Had run at York before
13/14 – Had won a race over 6f before
10/14 – Aged 5 or younger
9/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Rated between 92 and 98
8/14 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/14 – Filly or mare winners

Another tricky race to unravel with 20 runners heading to post, but again some decent trends to note. The Richard Fahey camp have the best recent record on show so their two runners – Growl and Mr Lupton – will be looking to improve the yard’s strike-rate in the race. Top-weight Growl has been dropped 4lbs from his last run and with the jockey claiming 5lbs here too then is 9lbs lower than his 10th in the rescheduled Ayr Gold Cup – that should give him every chance and draw 16 looks ideal. MR LUPTON was fourth in that race too and is also better off being 3lbs lower and also having a 7lb claiming apprentice riding this time – he was only beaten 4 lengths that day and based on the fact he’ll be 10lbs lower this time must enter calculations. Edward Lewis fits a fair few trends and comes from the shrewd David O’Meara yard, but off a mark of 100 does look to be weighted to the max at the moment so might need to find a bit more. Stake Acclaim, Spring Loaded and Flying Pursuit are all runners that tick a lot of boxes too and also head here off the back of good recent runs so will be popular in the betting. Flying Pursuit is also a proven course and distance winner and will have the useful Rachel Richardson claiming 3lbs. But the other one I like here is GOLDEN APOLLO. This 3 year-old – like Flying Pursuit – hails from the Tim Easterby yard and is also another proven course and distance winner here. He’s got 2 ½ lengths to find with his stablemate based on their last run when third, but a nice weight pull means things should be a lot closer this time. The slightly quicker ground will also be a plus for Golden Apollo, while draw 19 looks perfect.