Andy Newton
20 hours ago - 19 minute read

Saturday TV Horse Racing Trends (August 19th)

Knowledge is power so we’ve compiled a number of key stats for the big horse races ahead to give you a betting edge. Take two or so minutes to read up on the big trends and you can guarantee you will make better informed and more profitable decisions today. What’s not to like? Read on and cash in.

We’ve got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE ITV action from Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon this Saturday…

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

14:10 – Randox Grey Horse Handicap – Cl4 6f

  • 13/14 – Failed to win last time out
  • 12/14 – Aged 5 or older
  • 12/14 – Had won over 6f before
  • 12/14 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
  • 11/14 – Had 3 or more career wins
  • 11/14 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
  • 11/14 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
  • 10/14 – Returned 9.0 or shorter in the betting
  • 9/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
  • 8/14 – Unplaced favourites
  • 1/14 – Winning favourites

A unique race here as only grey horses are allowed to run! Dark Profit looks interesting and heads here off the back of a good win at Carlisle last time out, but is up 7lbs for that victory, plus this drop back to 6f is not certain to suit – he’s yet to win over this trip from seven tries and with 12 of the last 14 winners of this race proven 6f distance winners then that’s a big negative for him.

The 3 year-old CHEVAL BLANCHE has been running in much better company than this so back into a Class 4 would make her a big player. She’s went well to be 10th of 24 in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot and off a mark 5lbs lower here looks a real contender.

Trainer Michael Bell saddles Cheval Blanche in this one.

At a price Buccaneers Vault might surprise as despite not winning much (3 from 34) is never that far away in his races. But the other one of interest is last year’s winner – SYRIAN PEARL. This 6 year-old took this race by ½ a length 12 months ago and gets in here off the same mark. We know she likes it here at Newmarket – winning twice over this course and distance – while at the time of writing the Chris Wall stable are in decent order with an overall 36% strike-rate and boast an impressive 23% record with their older horses at the track.

14:45 – Randox Health (Handicap) – Cl2 6f

  • 14/15 – Failed to win last time out
  • 13/15 – Only had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
  • 12/15 – Had won over 6f before
  • 12/15 – Came from stall 10 or lower
  • 11/15 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
  • 11/15 – Winning distance ½ length or less
  • 10/15 – Carried 8-13 or less
  • 9/15 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
  • 7/15 – Had run at the track before (4 won)
  • 6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
  • 3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
  • 2/15 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of last 4 runnings)

Another tricky handicap to unravel, but the Kevin Ryan camp have held the key to this race in recent years – winning 2 of the last 4 runnings – and they might have the answer again – this time with TOMMY TAYLOR. The Ryan yard have had a horrid time of it this season with virus at the stable, but things are sorted now and they will be looking to make up for lost time during the final few months of the season.

Trainer Kevin Ryan has saddled the winner 2 of the last 4 times in this race.

14 of the last 15 winners failed to win last time out, but that’s ok for Tommy Taylor as we last saw this horse running down the field here at the end of last month. But the horse was badly hampered that day when coming with a decent-looking run and his form before that was solid. We know he also stays further, having won over 7f, and with just one career win to his name also fits that key trend. Of the rest, Dakota Gold and the Queen’s Merlin, who were both decent winners last time out, are also sure to be popular, while if settling a bit better than last time the Roger Charlton-trained Silent Echo is another that could have more to come with just 8-7 to carry.

Newbury Horse Racing Trends

13:50 – Denford Stud Stakes (Listed Race) – Cl1 7f

  • 13/15 – Returned 5.0 or shorter in the betting
  • 13/15 – Finished in the first three last time out
  • 12/15 – Had won a race before
  • 11/15 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (4) foal
  • 11/15 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
  • 9/15 – Placed favourites
  • 8/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
  • 8/15 – Won last time out
  • 4/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori

The John Gosden-trained VERANDAH looks interesting here and with some fancy Group 1 & 2 entries later in the season would really be expecting to take this if wanting to run in races like the Fillies’ Mile or the Rockfel at HQ over the coming months. She was an impressive winner on debut at Kempton and this March-born filly should have a lot more to offer. She was eased in the final stages that day over 7f, so there was plenty left in the locker and despite this being a harder race her connections clearly feel she’s up to the task.

The booking of jockey Ryan Moore is a definite plus for connections of Learn by Heart.

Of the rest, Ryan Moore catches the eye riding Learn By Heart for William Haggas and the Queen. Moore was on her back last time when winning well at Doncaster, but that was on soft ground and this is a big step up in grade. Red Mist, who won well on debut, and Hey Gaman are others to note, but Dee Ex Bee caught the eye when winning from the front at Goodwood last time out, albeit in softer ground, and looks a decent sort for the Mark Johnston yard. He’s another with some fancy entries, that include the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, so would also be expected to go well here if wanting to fulfil those engagements.

14:25 – Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) – Cl1 1m5f61y

  • 15/15 – Had won at least twice in their career
  • 13/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
  • 11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11/15 – Officially rated 111 or higher
  • 11/15 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
  • 11/15 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
  • 11/15 – Returned 5.0 or shorter in the betting
  • 11/15 – Aged 3-5 years-old
  • 3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 2/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
  • 2/15 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
  • Kings Fete (2.0) won the race in 2016

Frontiersman is the highest-rated in the field on a mark of 117 so this Godolphin horse commands plenty of respect. He was second in the Coronation Cup at Epsom earlier in the season and put in another top effort to be runner-up to Hawkbill at HQ last time out. He’s a past course winner here at Newbury too, but would need to prove himself over this 1m5 1/2f trip as the furthest he’s gone is 1m4f. Also, despite being placed in some top races he’s still only to win at handicap level. Being a 4 year-old he also has to give weight away to the younger horses and that might prove hard – especially having to give 9lbs to the improving DEFOE.

The Varian trained Defoe (right) is on a high rating of 110 coming into this one.

This Roger Varian-trained runner is already rated 110 himself and after beating Frankuus last time out comfortably at Hamilton heads here on a 4-timer. The runner-up that day has since franked the form when winning recently and being another proven course winner then he’s also got no issues on the track front. Wins on a variety of ground too suggest no matter what the conditions are then he’s the one to beat – Andrea Atzeni, who has ridden him four times in the past, is back in the saddle. Of the rest, Count Octave and the Ryan Moore-ridden To Eternity can do best of the rest.

15:00 – Ladies Day Handicap – Cl3 7f

  • 14/15 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
  • 13/15 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
  • 13/15 – Had won at least twice during their career
  • 11/15 – Returned 10.0 or shorter in the betting
  • 11/15 – Winning distance 1 length or shorter
  • 10/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 10/15 – Carried 9-1 or more
  • 10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
  • 7/15 – Drawn in stalls 12, 13, 14 or 15
  • 3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
  • 2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer

Jockey Jamie Spencer has a fair record in this race – winning it in 2007 and 2009 – so anything he rides should be given a second glance. All-bar-one of the last 15 winners were aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old so this is a significant trend to look out for, while 13 of the last 15 winners had raced at least 4 times that season and had also won twice during their careers. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride John Gosden’s Hyde Park and this 3 year-old is clearly better than recent runs. Those have been over 6f and 1m so the drop back to 7f will be in his favour with his only career win coming over this trip.

Trainer Roger Varian saddles the fancied Sun Lover in the Ladies Day Handicap.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni looks to have another decent ride too with SUN LOVER. This 4 year-old that is trained by Roger Varian is yet to finish out of the first two since moving from the Luca Cumani yard (4 runs) and despite being a beaten favourite the last twice was only touched-off a head last time at Doncaster. He gets in here off the same mark and looks set to run well again. But the Henry Candy-trained NOBLE PEACE is another that’s of interest. This 4 year-old was a solid second last time out at Goodwood in a decent handicap and gets in here off the same mark. Yes, that was on soft ground, but also has fair form on a quicker surface. All three career wins have been over this 7f trip so we know he’s becoming a bit of a specialist over this distance and the shrewd Candy yard have also been amongst the winners of late.

15:35 – Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – Cl1 7f

  • 14/15 – Had won a Listed (5) or Group (8) race before
  • 14/15 – Didn’t win last time out
  • 12/15 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
  • 12/15 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
  • 12/15 – Had won over this 7f trip before
  • 12/15 – Officially rated 110 or more
  • 12/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
  • 8/15 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
  • 7/15 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
  • 2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
  • Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015

Make down to 7f will certainly suit Mix and Mingle after running down the field in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes last time out. Her form figures over this trip read a decent 3-1-4-11-1-1 and jockey Ted Durcan knows the horse well. Librisa Breeze is sure to be popular too after running well this season. He was going well when squeezed from room last time at Goodwood in the Lennox Stakes and with a bit more luck in-running would be a big player. The winner that day – BRETON ROCK – caused a 50/1 shock, but if lining-up here he’s another to consider. He won this race in 2014, plus was third in 2015 so has proven form in this race and clearly heads here in tip-top order.

Breton Rock won this race 3 years ago.

Massaat, who was 9th in the 2016 Epsom Derby, would be interesting too if back to his best. We last saw him running down the field in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last August, but something was clearly amiss that day. The Owen Burrows yard have taken their time to get her back and it’s worth noting he’s gone well fresh in the past. But the other of interest is the Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained KASPERSKY. This 6 year-old likes to race up with the pace so this drop back to 7f from 1m looks a big plus. He almost stole the race from the front last time in the Summer Mile at Ascot, with the useful Mutakayyef needing every yard of that trip to get the better of him. He’s got decent Group form when trained in Italy and having run run Ribchester to 5 ¾ lengths in the Group One Queen Anne earlier this season was another top effort.

Ripon Horse Racing Trends

15:15 – Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) – Cl2 6f

  • 13/15 – Previous winners over 6f
  • 12/15 – Didn’t win last time out
  • 11/15 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
  • 10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
  • 10/15 – Carried 8-12 or more
  • 6/15 – Ran at either Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
  • 4/15 – Winning favourites
  • 1/15 – Aged 3 years-old
  • No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
  • 7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
  • Only 5 winning favourites since 1990
  • Since 1986 ALL winners have returned 21.0 or less

A race the bookmakers have loved in recent years – with just 5 winning favourites going in since 1990. Having said that, since 1986 ALL of the winners returned 20/1 or less in the betting so it might pay to still not look too far down the betting market. OUT DO, who won this year’s Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot looks set to go well again and took this race back in 2014 too. Trained by the David O’Meara camp, that have also won this in 2011 and 2012, plus he wasn’t disgraced last time when running just 3 ¾ lengths behind the classy Take Cover in City Walls Stakes at York. His form here at Ripon reads 3-1-7-3.

Fresh from success at Royal Ascot Out Do (foreground) will be well fancied here.

The Ruth Carr team have been going well of late too so their PIPERS NOTE is another of interest. This 7 year-old is a consistent sort and ran another decent race when fourth last week at Ascot. He’s been placed in the top 4 in all of his last 5 races and is also a past course and distance winner at the track. Of the others, the classy Kachy drops in grade and despite not having won since May 2016 (11 races ago) this will be his easiest task to date. Robero and proven course and distance winner – Flying Pursuit – have both had decent seasons and are others to note.