Domestic football resumes this weekend after the international break and football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is heading back to the continent, highlighting his favourite two fancies from across Europe’s major leagues.
Thankfully Exeter justified their position as odds-on favourites last week when welcoming Forest Green. The Grecians began that match with a point to prove, took the early advantage and invited Green on thereafter; Matt Taylor’s men managed to see the match through and returned to their rightful place at the top of the tree in League Two.
Elsewhere, Salford denied us a full house with a goal 15 minutes from time against Cambridge. The newcomers were unconvincing (again) and Cambridge arguably departed without their just deserts (again). I’ll be keeping a watchful eye on the duo going forward as neither seem to be occupying league positions reflecting their early performance levels.
Black Forest Boys Appeal In Berlin
Freiburg are the Bundesliga’s surprise package across the opening stanza of 2019/20. The Black Forest boys have earned a club-record points haul from their first seven fixtures (W4-D2-L1) and Christian Streich’s side look well capable of adding to their tally on Saturday afternoon when they travel to the German capital.
Freiburg have scored in all seven of their Bundesliga battles – notching at least twice on five occasions – whilst also pocketing top honours in three away ties at Hoffenheim, Fortuna Dusseldorf and Paderborn. In attack, youngster Luca Waldschmidt is in fine form for club and country and so the visitors make plenty of appeal on Saturday as surprising underdogs.
Union Berlin are the hosts and Urs Fischer’s troops are licking their wounds after a difficult past month. Following the elation of overcoming Dortmund (3-1) here at their Stadion An der Alten Försterei base, the capital club have flopped to four straight losses to slide down the Bundesliga standings and into the bottom-three.
Playing in their first-ever campaign in Germany’s top-flight, Die Eisernen have struggled to assert themselves consistently and Union are already operating in the bottom-three for Expected Goals (xG), xG from open play, as well as shots from inside the penalty box. Alarmingly, the Berlin outfit are barely hitting a 30% ratio return for both xG metrics.
In fact, no team in Europe’s top five leagues is generated a lower xG from open play figure than Union at this stage of the season and there’s little suggestion the hosts can find the magic formula in time for the visit of in-form Freiburg.
Remarkably, we can grab the guests with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap line at a benevolent 1.76, and that looks a steal.
Dutch Goals Line Should Be Punished
Nine rounds into the 2019/20 campaign and the Eredivisie is again proving fruitful for goals-based backers.
The Dutch top-flight has delivered 3.36 goals-per-game on average with almost half of its overall encounters surpassing the Over 3.5 Goals barrier; with such high returns, you’d presume the goal lines would be set at a bare minimum of 3 going forward.
Well, not quite. Layers appear to have underrated the prospect of a goal frenzy in Saturday’s showdown between newly-promoted FC Twente and Willem II with Over 2.75 Goals available to support at generous 1.93 quotes.
For me, this is the best value goals bet across the continent this weekend.
Admittedly it’s a very small sample but the pair have already combined to deliver 6/8 (75%) successful Over 3.5 Goals selections in their collective home/away fixtures this term. Those matches averaged a whopping 4.13 goals-per-game and there’s little indication to suggest the duo won’t come close to that figure once again at De Grolsch Veste.
2010 champions Twente have returned to the top-tier with a bang.
All bar one of their early encounters have seen both sides score with six of those nine outings overcoming the aforementioned Over 3.5 Goals line. The hosts’ contests are also averaging a chunky 2.02 Expected Goals (xG) from open play, insinuating goalmouth action is prevalent.
Willem II aren’t far behind that open play figure (1.85) and combined the pair have therefore delivered a seducing 3.78 xG from open play on average in their 18 matches thus far. Meanwhile, the guests have been regular profit-makers in the goals markets on their travels during Adrie Koster’s time in charge.
The visitors have beaten the Over 2.5 Goals mark in 14/21 (67%) games as guests since the start of last season as 12/21 (57%) fixtures featurd four or more goals. A very enticing 15 (71%) ticked off winners in the Both Teams To Score column too and so a trip to Twente really should produce a goal-heavy encounter to enthuse neutrals at a big value price.
- Freiburg +0.25 – 4 units @ 1.76
- Over 2.75 Goals in Twente v Willem II 3 units @ 1.93