Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend’s European action with Belgium and Italy taking centre-stage.
Goals Galore Forecast In Belgium
Belgium’s top-flight has been one of Europe’s most entertaining divisions to follow in 2020/21. We’re just past the midway point in the First Division A campaign and 3.01 goals are being served up on average per-game with 61% of contests breaking the Over 2.5 Goals barrier – a further 34% of fixtures have featured a minimum of four goals.
One of the chief protagonists in the high goals count is Oud-Heverlee Leuven, a club smack-bang in the centre of the country. No team has posted more successful Over 2.5 Goals selections in the Belgian top-flight this season than the Flemish outfit, with a huge 15/19 (79%) of their encounters producing Over 2.5 Goals profit.
Marc Brys’ men have also been involved in more Both Teams To Score winners than any other in the First Division A, with 16/19 (84%) matches resulting in goals at both ends of the field. OHL have scored in all 19 of those contests, striking twice or more on 12 occasions and recording only three shutouts along the way to occupy a top-six berth.
Only promoted in the summer, Leuven have been a breath of fresh air in Belgium with their exciting, front-foot style of play. Just 2 of their most recent 17 showdowns have fallen below the standard 2.5 goals line and nine of those matches paid out in full for punters supporting the Over 2.75 Goals line, which again makes plenty of appeal on Sunday.
Anderlecht arrive at Den Dreef having slowly clawed their way back into a qualification position for the Play-offs I. It’s been a rocky road for Vincent Kompany – head coach of Les Mauves et Blancs – but three victories in four to close out 2020 have restored faith in the inexperienced boss. However, results on the road continue to concern the hierarchy.
Since making a surprise return to Belgium’s most decorated club at the beginning of 2019/20, Kompany has overseen only six Anderlecht triumphs in 23 on their domestic travels. The capital club have kept their sheets clean in just four of those away fixtures, shipping two goals or more in six of nine games as guests this term alone.
Anderlecht have enough firepower themselves – scoring in 16 of 19 First Division A encounters in 2020/21 – to make a game of things in Heverlee but the visitors are unsteady odds-on favourites.
So instead, returning to the Over 2.75 Goals market at 1.85 quotes is advised; only two of the visitors nine away trips have failed to make this wager pay.
Monday Match-Up Won’t Disappoint
Serie A returned from its mini festive break in midweek with yet another goals bonanza.
Nine of the ten fixtures featured both teams scoring and nine of the contests also produced Over 2.5 Goals profit.
The peninsula is now posting 3.17 goals-per-game on average with 62% breaking the standard 2.5 Goals barrier, and a hefty 39% featured four or more goals.
So it’s surprising to see Over 2.5 Goals in Monday night’s match-up between Spezia and Sampdoria offered at 1.88, especially so considering the pair have produced more winners in this market than any of their divisional rivals.
Indeed, each outfit have delivered a massive 13/16 (81%) Over 2.5 Goals pay-outs, with 12/32 (38%) collective contests seeing Over 3.5.
Both Spezia and Samp have been silenced on only three occasions, whilst the duo have recorded a combined four shutouts between them this term. Twenty-three (73%) of those tussles produced green ticks in the Both Teams To Score column with matches involving the couple returning a very healthy 3.22 goals-per-game average.
A dip into the performance data metrics also displays positive figures for goal-hungry punters so I’m happy to proceed with the Over 2.5 Goals approach in the Stadio Alberto Picco showdown on Monday night.
- Over 2.75 Goals in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Anderlecht 2 units @ 1.85
- Over 2.5 Goals in Spezia vs Sampdoria 2 units @ 1.88