Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is taking us to the continent again this weekend with goals-based angles sought from the Bundesliga and Eliteserien.
Kudos to Colchester for their outstanding Tuesday night effort at Swindon. Few would have fancied the Essex outfit to come away from the County Ground with a positive performance so the 3-0 away success for John McGreal’s men accounts for one of the Football League’s standout displays of the season thus far.
Swindon were well beaten so there are no complaints about the final score. Losing any selection is always painful but we can take heart from the market following the Robins going into that match – the League Two favourites went off much shorter than the advised price in this column and that’s always a sign we’re on the right track, so every cloud…
Thankfully, the meeting between Leyton Orient and Crewe lived up to top billing. The third goal might have come late on but the two teams created plenty and could easily have added to the scoreline before that decisive late strike delivered a winning selection.
Now it’s time to return to the continent with action from Germany and Norway piquing my interest.
Nils Petersen helped Freiburg confirm their status as the Bundesliga surprise package as the Black Forest outfit beat Hoffenheim 3-0 last Sunday to move up to third in the embryonic standings. Long-term head coach Christian Streich said he was “not interested in the table” at this stage but was delighted with his team’s eye-catching performance in Sinsheim.
Freiburg have now scored 10 goals in their first four games of the season – a new club record – registering three victories from their opening four. Streich’s men lost at home to Koln in dramatic fashion three weeks ago, conceding a last-gasp goal in a 2-1 defeat, but have been largely impressed across all four of their contests.
Mainz were battered 3-0 and Paderborn dispatched 3-1 in the club’s opening two tussles. Admittedly, the schedule has been kind, but the blossoming and burgeoning partnership between emerging star Luca Waldschmidt and Petersen, plus the return of Jonathan Schmid, has made the Black Forest boys a major menace this term.
Now back at their Schwarzwald-Stadion base, Freiburg demand maximum respect.
Only the bottom three sides had a worse record on the road than Saturday’s hosts in 2018/19, while the year before only Koln earnt fewer than their dismal nine point output. Therefore, Freiburg tend to rely on their home displays and often produce their best work here.
Nils Petersen was on the scoresheet in Freiburg’s 3-0 win over Mainz last weekend.
There’s certainly appeal in supporting a home success when Augsburg come to town. The Fuggerstädter finished just four points clear of the relegation play-off spot last season and after eight successive Bundesliga seasons, the Bavarians look likely to be battling against the drop yet again in 2019/20.
No team last season had a weaker defence than Augsburg as they conceded 71 goals (2.10 per game). Martin Schmidt’s men are yet to keep their sheets clean this time around and have shipped 10 times across their opening four fixtures, giving up an alarming 1.30 Expected Goals (xG) from open play per-game.
However, the visitors are still generating opportunities in the attacking third and so there’s arguably better value to be found in the goals market. Freiburg are unlikely to silence the visitors, but with a home triumph probable, it makes sense to look towards Over 2.5 Goals, especially so at generous 1.72 odds.
Since the start of last season, the two teams have combined to produce a profit in this market in 25/38 (66%) of their collective home/away Bundesliga matches. The same 25 (66%) figure saw both sides score, with 16 (42%) showdowns even producing four or more goals, as the pair combined for a paltry six shutouts.
Bodo/Glimt have never tasted top-flight success in Norway.
The Superlaget have been bridesmaids in the Eliteserien on three previous occasions but head coach Kjetil Knutsen is hopeful the current crop can rewrite the record books in 2019.
The Nordland outfit have topped the table for eight weeks of the season and remained in the top two for all but four rounds of action, although the weight of expectation appears to have put Bodo off their stride. Surrendering their position at the summit following a return of one win in four, Knutsen’s troops now trail league leaders Molde by three points.
Nevertheless, I’d be quietly confident this group can get back on track this Sunday against Ranheim, and in doing so, the visitors are unlikely to stray away from their tried-and-trusted attacking instincts. Despite sitting second, Bodo boast the second-worst defence in the top half, as well as the second-best attack in the Eliteserien. It’s led to plenty of thrillers.
I do feel there’s a smidgen more value in the Over 2.75 Goals option here than backing an away victory – if Bodo do put together a winning display, they’re unlikely to do so without giving up numerous opportunities and potential a goal or two.
The Superlaget have already seen a huge 3.90 goals-per-game and kept their sheets clean in only five of 21 outings.
Bodo Manager Kjetil Knutsen has seen his side struggle defensively at times this season.
Indeed, Bodo have been breached at least twice on eight occasions in their 21 matches. However, their offensive output deserves plenty of plaudits – Knutsen has seen his team score in all bar two contests, notching twice or more in 14/21 (67%). Unsurprisingly then, this selection has a strong success rate already this term.
Bodo have surpassed the Over 2.5 Goals line in 12 of their most recent 14 fixtures, as well as seven of 10 away trips, with five of those games as guests even breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier. It’s difficult to dismiss a repeat considering Ranheim’s struggles.
Ranheim are only off the bottom of Norway’s top-tier on goal difference after a rotten run of results – six defeats in eight, one win in 11 –plummeted the hosts into the relegation reckoning. Even so, goals have proven plentiful and the basement battlers have also earned their own tag as great entertainers despite their plight.
Ranheim’s outings at their minuscule EXTRA Arena home have hit 3.70 goals-per-game with seven of 10 crossing the Over 2.5 Goals line. The hosts only shutout here came against rock-bottom Strpmsgodset and they’ve even leaked two or more goals in eight encounters in front of their home supporters.
This should be a bit of a shootout;
Bodo are battling to stay in the title race and Ranheim are playing to preserve their top-flight status. Neither team can be trusted to keep the back door shut and with a focus on the final-third, an entertaining showdown is expected.
