Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire takes a look at the best value bets from Tuesday night’s Football League card with two fixtures in League Two standing out.
A good weekend for my Insights column was almost excellent. First, a half-stakes profit was enjoyed in the Eredivisie from our Over 2.75 Goals selection in Den Haag. Having fallen two goals behind, the hosts rallied to get back into the game, and despite creating plentiful opportunities, only managed to get a solitary strike on the board.
Elsewhere, Montpellier also returned a half-stakes winner with a +0.25 start at Bordeaux. In fairness, there was little to choose between the two teams, although the home side were limited to just 0.49 Expected Goals (xG) and Montpellier had a stoppage-time goal ruled out for offside. I’ll happily bank the profit and get set to go again this midweek.
ROBINS CAN FLY HIGH AGAINST CUMBRIANS
Cheltenham played out a dour goalless draw at Morecambe on Saturday but a return to their Whaddon Road home should ensure a more watchable affair on Tuesday evening. The Robins have produced a series of sterling efforts as hosts, suffering only three defeats in 21 here under Michael Duff’s watch, two of which arrived against promotion-winning teams.
Town have claimed top honours in 11 (52%) of those 21 tussles with goals flowing freely. Cheltenham have scored at least twice in 12 (57%) League Two home outings during Duff’s impressive reign in the dugout and the Robins’ pack is strengthened by the expectant return to the fold for midfielder Chris Clements this midweek.
Visitors Carlisle suffered their second defeat of the season on Saturday when going down 2-0 at home to well-fancied Mansfield. The Cumbrians were competitive throughout, although Steven Pressley’s posse have been far from convincing as a defensive unit. The Blues have given up 5.10 Expected Goals (xG) with only four teams facing more on-target attempts.
United enjoyed a few standout results on the road last term but their overall record in games as guests has been poor with 11 (46%) losses from 24.
I suspect Carlisle will be lounging around the bottom-half of League Two come May, whilst I’m anticipating Cheltenham contending for the top-seven, so it makes sense to oppose the away side here.
Cheltenham – unfashionable in footballing terms – are often undervalued and underrated at Whaddon Road but a Tuesday night tussle under the lights should bring out the best in the Gloucestershire group. The home side have won eight of their last nine when welcoming bottom-half teams and the 1.70 available on the Robins off a scratch 0 Asian Handicap holds plenty of appeal, knowing the safety of the draw is also onside.
GOALS TO FLOW IN SUSSEX SHOWDOWN
Crawley have arguably created the most headlines in the early exchanges of League Two. Presumed to be bottom-half fodder, various pundits marked the Sussex side out as a serious relegation threat in 2019/20. However, Gabriel Cioffi’s crew have started the season with a swagger that suggests the Red Devils have far larger aspirations in mind.
A 2-1 reverse at Carlisle on the opening day was scant reward for Crawley’s efforts. Town fired in 20 shots at goal and missed an early sitter, but bounced back with a dominant 2-0 success over well-fancied Salford. Cioffi’s charges amassed 30 attempts and landed nine on-target as they racked up 3.53 Expected Goals (xG) against the ‘Class of 92’ club.
The Red Devils were subject of a major late move in the betting markets ahead of Saturday’s showdown at Scunthorpe, and although Crawley were unable to take maximum points home, the Town team again impressed in the final-third by winning the shot count, and xG battle, whilst forcing the home goalkeeper into eight saves.
Even at this embryonic stage, Crawley have taken 17 more shots than any of their divisional rivals and so clearly the Reds command respect. Normally I’d be queuing up to invest faith in the hosts, but Tuesday’s visitors Crewe have also been making waves in the performance data metrics early on, and so a fascinating fixture is expected at Broadfield Stadium.
Only the Alex can match Crawley for cumulative shots on-target with the duo also in the top three for xG output. David Artell’s outfit are packed with potential and will feel confident of at least landing a blow in Sussex. The pair have collectively produced four winning Over 2.5 Goals selections already and so I’m keen to invest in a repeat at kind 1.97 quotes here.
- Cheltenham +0 Asian Handicap – 3 units @ 1.70
- Over 2.50 Goals in Crawley v Crewe – 2 units @ 1.97