After a strong start to the season, gameweek 4 returned a loss of 2.5 points, but it could have been oh so different.
At Selhurst Park, a missed penalty was just one of the things that went against my two point bet on over 2.25 goals as Southampton beat Palace 2-0. But that scoreline doesn’t even describe the match.
There were 40 shots between the sides, with 12 on target (6-6) and the xG returned a whopping total of 5.97! Based on this we should be expecting this bet to win 96% of the time so it was a great bet, worthy of the higher stake, it just so happened it was very, very unlucky not to win this time.
Turf Moor also witnessed a surprisingly limp Burnley performance as their poor start to the season continued, while Man Utd bounced back from back-to-back defeats to win comfortably. They had 58% possession, outshot the Clarets 21 – 9 and won the xG 2.91 – 1.16.
No alarms and no surprises
I’ve no qualms with the bet, and I’d still want to take United on at the prices, it’s just Burnley offered little. For Burnley, it was perhaps a hangover from Thursday night’s Europa League exit. I actually wrote about how teams perform following action in the Europa League for Matchbook here if you want to read more about it.
Despite another missed penalty, over 2.25 easily won at the Amex stadium as Brighton drew 2-2 with Fulham. It was no surprise to see the shot count total 27, as both sides gave them up with ease, and the expected goals returned a total of 4.77 to make a real mockery of the goal line. Given that, readers may question why I only played it safe and bet one point?
Well we only had three games of Fulham’s Premier League data to work with, and given they signed so many players in the summer, it made sense to be sensible.
It’s interesting to note the Cottagers goal line in their visit to Man City this weekend is a high looking 3.75. But I’m looking elsewhere this weekend and I’ve found three more bets I believe are good value.
Spurs on their way to Wembley….
Firstly I’m off to Wembley as Tottenham host Liverpool and I can’t believe the odds here.
Spurs are 2.92 at home, making Liverpool rated 0.1 of a goal better, which is almost as if this match is played on a neutral ground.
Spurs have won 14 of their last 17 home games there losing just once (Man City) and Tottenham were 2.28 in this fixture last October.
They won that fixture 4-1, winning the expected goals count 2.46 – 0.74, so what’s happened since then to possibly change the odds this much? Well Liverpool have upgraded both their defence and goalkeeper bringing in both Virgil van Dijk and Alisson.
There’s no doubt van Dijk has brought calmness, assurance and confidence to a backline, but the supremacy moving 0.45 goals is too big a move for me.
Spurs played this game without Dembele or Wanyama in midfield and Serge Aurier out of position at left wing-back last year and since then have also added Lucas Moura. International duty has increased variance in the fitness of players, but we know Harry Kane will be fully rested after a week off and we can back Spurs +0.25 here which means only a defeat will see us lose.
I hear music in the streets…
It was music to my ears when I heard the goal line had pitched up at 2.5 for Bournemouth v Leicester.
Regular readers will know my fondness for backing goals in the Cherries games, with 19 of their last 25 matches seeing over 2.5 goals (76%) and with Jamie Vardy back from suspension this weekend he’ll be raring to go.
Since the beginning of last season, Leicester’s matches have averaged 3.07pg with the xG returning slightly less at 2.82, while 18 of their last 27 went over 2.5 (67%) to give equivalent odds of 1.50. We can back over 2.5 at around 1.97 here and that seems worthy of a point.
Finally, another goal line has caught my eye at St James Park as Newcastle welcome Arsenal.
It’s pitched up at 2.75 and while understandable I think Rafael Benitez will set his side up deep and compact, happy to concede possession in-order to keep the game tight. And looking at the recent meetings between the sides, that’s how the games have played out.
Last seasons matches finished 2-1 Newcastle and 1-0 Arsenal where the Toon Army had just 37% of the ball with both games returning an xG of 2.31. The last six matches at St James Park have seen results of 2-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1 and 0-0 seeing just 9 goals in total (1.50pg). I think there’s value in taking under 2.75 here and I will be having a point on this one.
- Tottenham +0.25 ~1.82 – 1.5 points
- Over 2.50 goals Bournemouth – Leicester ~1.97 – 1 point
- Under 2.75 goals Newcastle – Arsenal ~1.98 – 1 point