Fresh from a clean sweep last weekend, Mark Stinchcombe returns with three Easter Treats!
Three winners out of three last week which was very pleasing and just goes to show you have to keep faith with your yourself.
The most important part of betting is the decision-making process to arrive at your bets, not the results which are out of our hands.
The Bournemouth overs gift gave again as they scored five at Burnley to easily clear the 2.25 goal line. As I’ve said time and again, the great thing about this Bournemouth side is it can only need one of the sides to score the goals such is their proficiency for goals/porousness defensively. Based on expected goals it looks like I was fortunate under 2.5 goals banked in Burnley v Cardiff (3.71 total) but with Burnley contributing 2.84 of those, maybe variance took over as I mentioned how they scored two in the reverse fixture with a total of just 0.17xg.
Finally, it took just 29 minutes for another two point bet to win as their four goals at St Mary’s to see an over 2.0 winner. The xG total saw 4.45 and I was really pleased with my bet here.
This could be a case of betting one game too late but after seeing what happened at the Etihad on Wednesday night between Manchester City and Tottenham, and with still having big targets in the league, other than fatigue, I see no reason why this game should play out too much differently. City are still going for the league and Spurs are just one point clear of 5th place Chelsea in the race for top the four.
The reason I mention Wednesday as being prevalent is that it continues a theme of meetings between these two sides in Manchester, where goals are very much on the agenda.
Since 2012, there have been 38 goals in just eight meetings at a whopping 4.75 goals-per-game.
And it’s not just all City, with Tottenham only failing to score once in that time (a 6-0 drubbing). Here we have a goal expectancy of just 3.35 in comparison. City’s games are averaging 3.30 but we have to remember that Tottenham are arguably the 3rd best team in the league and can very much compete with the Citizens, unlike the average side in the Premier League.
Looking at Pep Guardiola’s side’s matches at home against the top six this season, goals feature very much. 6-0 v Chelsea, 3-1 Arsenal, 2-1 Liverpool, 3-1 Man Utd. It makes for similar reading for Mauricio Pochettino away against these sides. Liverpool 2-1, Chelsea 2-0, Arsenal 4-2, Man Utd 0-3.
I don’t think it should be any surprise there are goals with City ranking 1st for shots-per-game and Spurs 4th. And that’s before we consider both sides defensively.
I think there are weaknesses in all of City’s defenders but because as a team their best attribute is winning the ball back, often high up the pitch, coupled with the opposition too scared to attack, these weaknesses do not regularly get exposed. And if we look at Tottenham, I think we can see from Wednesday night how their full-backs were often exposed, particularly Kieran Trippier up against Raheem Sterling. For a player cited for his poor finishing, 17 goals makes for impressive reading this season.
First up on Sunday afternoon sees a seemingly rejuvenated Everton side host Man Utd at Goodison Park. Things appeared to have soured for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer since his permanent appointment with five defeats in seven.
One element that doesn’t appear to be helping him is the side’s defence, which has regressed to Mourinho levels in terms of rates of goals conceded. Utd have kept just seven clean sheets this season – only four teams have kept fewer and two of those, Huddersfield and Fulham, have already been relegated.
Overall it’s 60 goals conceded in 46 games in all competitions which does not make for pretty reading for Utd fans.
What does make for good reading however for betting fans, is the rate of goals in Utd games compared to the odds available.
Solskjaer’s matches have seen 49 goals in the 16 he’s overseen at a rate of 3.06 per game. The expected goals are even higher at 54 (3.40pg), suggesting we could be in for even more. For reference, the goal expectancy in this game is just 2.70 in comparison.
Everton’s matches have seen 90 goals in their 34 games (2.65pg), and whilst that might be more in keeping with the market, the total expected goals is actually returning a rate of 2.90 per-game which gets me excited. Particularly when we see that both defences allowed a whopping 16 shots-on-target in the reverse fixture in a match that finished 2-1. However, like this weekend, there could be even more goals with the expected goals finishing at an impressive 4.52 on that occasion. Overall, 11 of Ole’s 16 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (69%).
Finally, on Sunday I want to be with another team who have Champions League aspirations in Arsenal as they entertain Crystal Palace at the Emirates. They may well have played in the Europa League last night but their record makes for impressive reading in their matches immediately after: P10 W7 D2 L1 F23 A9 +14.
In fact, their record against lesser sides is very, very good this season. They’ve won 15 of 21 v sides 10th and below (71%) and have a formidable home record with 14 wins out of 17 (82%). For Crystal Palace, they’ll travel without their 1st choice defenders in Mamadou Sakho and James Tomkins. And at the other end of the pitch, I have to question their output.
Luka Milivojević has scored 10 penalties this season – and not only does that rate feel unsustainable – it accounts of 25% of Palace’s goals, meaning without them, they would have only scored the same amount as 18th placed Cardiff – 30.
Arsenal are 1.55 here and I’ve seen a model rate them 1.45 so I’m we’re getting some value here.
Arsenal won this 4-1 last season winning the xG count 3.29 – 0.65.
- Over 3.25 goals Man City v Tottenham ~1.96 – 1 point
- Over 2.5 goals Everton v Man Utd ~1.92 – 2.5 points
- Arsenal -1.0 ~1.94 – 1 point
Host Ali Maxwell is joined by Mark Stinchcombe and Mark O’Haire to look ahead to the weekend’s Premier League and European action – with five selections in total from Manchester City vs Tottenham, Everton vs Manchester United, Augsburg vs Stuttgart and Bologna vs Sampdoria.