This week on the Matchbook Betting Podcast 27/4

10 min


The Football Pod

Mark O’Haire and Mark Stinchcombe join Aidan “Sully” O’Sullivan and Emmet Kennedy to discuss the weekend’s football and the lads highlight some great bets including a discussion on why there is definitely no chance of anything dodgy happening in Italy…

Inter v Juventus

Mark O’Haire isn’t rushing to back Inter here and thinks Juventus will bounce back after that loss to Napoli last weekend and that miserly defence will be back on song against a team who are also very low scoring. An old-school Italian match is on the cards.

“Juventus will batten down the hatches and go again and should they win this match they will have a 4 point lead over Napoli. Everything is stacking up for a nick and tuck low scoring battle and I am happy to oppose goals.”

Mark goes into real depth on Juventus approach against Napoli and how they may adjust this weekend and why goals don’t look on the horizon this weekend on the podcast and you can listen to his full advice here.

The bet: Under 2.25 goals

Listen: Here

Burnley v Brighton

Mark Stinchcombe is absolutely desperate to get involved in the goals market in this one where he thinks Brighton will be looking to put on a bit of a performance in this match. He also rattles off some stats to show how Burnley have been overperforming defensively and says why he’s making the case for goal here.

“We can try and take advantage of the market here. We’ve got expected goals here of just 2.2 and I think that looks really low when you look at their expected goals this season so there is scope for looking at the overs here.”

He offers some even more conservative betting options for those who don’t want to back the straight over 2.0 market and goes into far more detail on his reasoning and the relative performances of the team this season on the podcast here.

The bet: Over 2 goals

Listen: Here

Atalanta v Genoa

Mark O’Haire focuses on a game where he thinks the market might have overreacted to end of season motivations and maybe overestimated Atalanta’s ability to put a big number on the scoreboard.

“Expected points ranks them as the fourth best team in Italy but putting teams to the sword hasn’t been that straightforward for Atalanta. They’ve only won by two or more goals seven times and four of those came against the bottom four.”

Listen to the full discussion of the revival at Genoa, the stats behind Atalanta’s performance this year and why he’s looking at the handicaps for a value bet this weekend.

Listen: Here

Celtic v Rangers

Mark Stinchcombe can’t see Celtic doing anything other than going out all guns blazing to win this one and even if they rotate he sees goals and creativity all over the park. A plethora of attacking talent if you will!

“As ever it comes down to price and Celtic are around the 1.6 mark to win here and the last time they met here they were 1.35 so that’s far too big an overreaction.”

Listen to the full discussion of the game, Sully and Emmet discussing if this is a major sporting event any more and exactly what Mark will be backing here.

Listen: Here

Strategy Chat

Mark Stinchcombe also raises an interesting point about Napoli’s remaining run-in in Serie A and how they might just possibly get a bit of a helping hand along the way. Listen to the reasoning why here.

The Racing Pod

Aidan “Sully” O’Sullivan and Emmett Kennedy chat about the big jumps finale at Sandown this weekend with betting expert Stephen Harris and horse racing analyst Rory Delargy.

Rory Delargy and Stephen Harris run through the cards for the big Saturday races including picking out some potential value place lays in the Champion Hurdle and some cunning in-running bets for the Scottish Grand National as well as some more value bets and lays.

The Gold Cup, 3.35pm Saturday Sandown Park

Stephen Harris is looking at the weather and thinks it’s going to be a test of stamina and two he doesn’t like the look of are Missed Approach and Blaklion. But he has a shortlist of three including Sugar Baron who he thinks has a big race ahead of him.

“It will be amazing if Blaklion can bounce back from the Grand National and the one I am keenest on from my shortlist of three is Sugar Baron who comes from a stable that is absolutely flying and there are lots of things in his favour.” Listen to his full shortlist here.

Delargy thinks the most interesting thing to work out is what the going will be, and he doesn’t think it will be worse than soft. He agrees on Missed Approach who will struggle to follow up but disagrees on Blaklion who he wouldn’t want to lay on the day and neither is he keen on Stephen’s shout.

“Sugar Baron is well handicapped, but he can’t bloody jump. And I’m going for one I have put up before in Royal Vacation. For me, he will stay this trip and he’s got a touch of class about him.”

Listen to Delargy’s full reasoning behind the 40/1 shot and a couple of other recommendations here.

Oaksey Chase, 2.25pm Sandown Park

Delargy is hoping it’s not too soft as that will change his view on the race, but he has one he likes and it’s not the favourite Top Notch.

“Art Mauresque doesn’t have the speed for 2m and won’t stay 3m but this in-between race is in his ballpark and he gets weight from horses that are carrying penalties and he’s worth a bet.” Listen to his full reasoning here.

The team also talk about Apple’s Jade in the Champion Hurdle at Punchestown on Saturday and a horse that Emmet thinks just can’t lose. I think we all know how that one might end. Listen here for the full chat.

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