Fabian Sommer
2 months ago - 7 minute read

NFL Week 14 Best Bet – Fabian Sommer

9-3-1 on the season (75%) with his Matchbook Insights picks, Fabian Sommer takes another shot at his 10th W with a total play from Seattle!

Last week we pushed with Dolphins -12 over the Bengals and that’s just another reminder that the primary goal in sports betting is betting good numbers.

I simply failed last week, as I took the worst possible number.

After Tua Tagovailoa got in two limited practices I was 99% sure that Ryan Fitzpatrick would start again. Turned out I was wrong. For readers of this column who took Miami -12, it was the difference between a full unit of profit and zero.

Let’s dive into week 14.

We are going to be on a total that is still close to a field goal too high in my opinion.

The matchup between the Seahawks and the Jets is set up to be low-scoring.

The Seahawks have made a transition in recent weeks. Early in the season, they had a consistent, high-octane offense paired with an atrocious pass defense. That set up very well for high-scoring games. Some things have changed recently, starting with the loss at Buffalo in week nine.

From weeks 1 to 8, in neutral game situations where the win probability is between 5 and 95 percent, the Seahawks were averaging 0.25 EPA/dropback, good for 6th in the league. They completed 9.98% of their passes above expectation (CPOE), 1st by a mile. Since week 9, Seattle is averaging 0.00 EPA/dropback – 23rd in the NFL, behind teams like the Giants and Washington.

Their CPOE decreased to 5.4%, but that still ranks 7th in the league.

Their early-down efficiency decreased from 0.17 EPA/play to 0.06 EPA/play. One of the potential reasons could be that WR Tyler Lockett has been banged-up lately. Another reason could be that defenses have caught up to Seattles passing game and are successfully taking some stuff away.

On top of that, Pete Carroll has repeatedly said that he wants to run the ball more and he specifically said that Chris Carson is ready for a full workload this week.

We don’t know whether Carroll is being completely serious, but it’s worth mentioning.

Interestingly, the Seahawks lead the league in EPA/rush on early downs. They are averaging 0.059 EPA/rush – that sounds good. However, they are averaging 0.177 EPA/dropback on early downs and more early down runs would decrease their overall efficiency.

The Jets have a very bad pass defense which provides a good matchup against Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

But the only thing they are quite solid at is run defense and interior pressure.

DT Quinnen Williams has been a monster in recent weeks, both against the run and the pass.

DT Folorunso Fatukasi has the highest run defense grade among 50 qualifying interior defenders in the NFL right now at 90.5.

The interior offensive line is also the weakness of the Seahawks. That’s going to be a tough matchup for Seattle, especially if they intend on running the ball a little bit more than usual.

In the end, we are still talking about Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett against a bad Jets pass defense that should get torched when Wilson has time.

I just don’t think that Seattle is going to score touchdowns en masse.

It’s just not the same offense we saw early in the season. Their maximum scoring output should be in the 27-30 range.

That would require the Jets to score in the 17-20 range to push the total and that’s something I just cannot see happening.

The Seahawks D has been trending upwards in recent weeks!

Gang Green comes off a game in which the Las Vegas defense made them look like a top-10 unit. Josh freaking Adams had 8 carries for over 70 yards. We should consider that performance as an absolute outlier.

Sam Darnold wasn’t even good in that game. In all of his starts this year, the Jets offense scored an average of 13.5 points and got above 17 on the scoreboard just twice.

On the season, Sam Darnold ranks 38th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks (150+ dropbacks) in EPA/dropback. His average is -0.21 EPA/dropback, 0.10 (!) less than the second-last signal caller, Dwayne Haskins.

This time, the Jets will be without rookie WR Denzel Mims (personal issues) who has been very good lately. WR Jamison Crowder is dealing with a calf injury.

As bad as the Seahawks defense used to be, they are getting healthier.

Jamal Adams is back to full strength and is a force on blitzes. DE Carlos Dunlap was a great addition and should see more snaps than last week while being injured. The secondary could potentially get CB Quinton Dunbar back.

There aren’t a lot of paths for the Jets to a lot of offensive success.

The Seahawks offense should show us more than last week, but when I think about potential scores, I come up with results like 27-14, 30-13 or 24-17.

To be transparent, I released 47.5 to my subscribers, but I’d have played it at 47 anyway.

Recommended Bet

  • Jets/Seahawks UNDER 47 -104