Feel free to ignore every word I’ve written should the Curragh be hit by rain, but if I’m right the going will be pretty quick on Saturday, and there are a few, notably mudlark Addeybb, who ought to be opposed as a result.
13:45 Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap
With the ground getting quicker, it should pay to oppose Aleef and Tide of Time here. Ken Condon’s charge has a decent overall record, but he does not seem to enjoy fast ground, and was below form when third over 5f here last time. The longer trip may help, but I feel he needs to make a print at least if he’s going to show his best.
Tide of Time is a more confident shout, as he has run poorly on both starts here, and is not helped by being drawn out in stall one.
If you lay one here, make it him, but a place lay of both reduces risk.
15:30 Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises International Stakes
Addeybb looked back to his very best when winning a competitive Wolferton Stakes at Ascot, but it’s well established that he is a horse who needs cut in the ground, and heavy rain on the opening day at Ascot was a godsent for the Haggas horse.
He was beaten 10 lengths in the Lockinge Stakes last year when running on quick ground, and while I admit this is a much easier task, I fail to see him offering backers any value unless the forecast I’m looking at is badly wrong (please ignore everything I’ve written here should it transpire that the Curragh has been hit by the kind of thunderstorms which are especially wet. I can handle the dry ones).
17:20 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Stakes
This is not an easy race, but the play must be to oppose Anthony Van Dyck on value grounds.
He’s a horse I’ve always liked, and I had a little tickle on his for the Derby at the start of the year, but there was absolutely nothing to choose between five horses at the line, and the winner was the beneficiary of a gap appearing near the rail at just the right time, his having to wait for a gap not something he should be marked up for in the circumstances.
I would not say he cannot follow up here, but there is virtually nothing to choose between him, Broome and Madhmoon on Epsom running, and I would argue that the other pair were not helped by how the race panned out.
Madhmoon, in particular, produced too soon, albeit having his hand forced a little, and Broome coming from a fair way back having got caught wider and further back that ideal. As such, I would have that pair at marginally shorter odds than Anthony Van Dyck, rather than the last-named colt as a clear and short-priced favourite.
- 13:45 Place Lay Tide of Time @ 3.0 or shorter to win 10pts [max liability 20pts]
- 13:45 Place Lay Aleef @ 3.5 or shorter to win 10pts [max liability 25pts]
- 15:30 Lay Addeybb @ 2.2 or shorter to win 15pts [max liability 18pts]
- 17:20 Lay Anthony Van Dyck @ 2.45 or shorter to win 20pts [max liability 29pts]