Last week’s attempt to find a few outsiders who might be placed in the Grand National seemed to go down well, with both Magic of Light and Walk In The Mill hitting the frame, and I thought we could do similar with the Scottish version, so I’ve dug out three who look overpriced and have prospects of finishing in the money at Ayr.
15:35 Scottish National
Blue Flight is trading at 40+ to win this race, but if he had an identical profile but half a stone less to carry, he’d be one of the favourites. That might sound an obvious thing to say, but it’s not true of the majority, and Blue Flight, as a sound jumping novice who promises to stay well, has a really appealing profile for the race. His trainer has won the race several times before, including with similar types in Captain Dibble and Earth Summit, and this strapping gelding looks a National horse of the future.
The case against him is simple in that the handicapper has given him a bit too much weight on what he’s achieved, but he’s unexposed and improving by the start, so while his impost might stop him winning, I’d still expect him to run a really solid race, and that should put him in the thick of the action where it matters.
Red Infantry appears to be a horse with jumping problems at first glance, but is actually a pretty safe conveyance and his non-completion in Haydock’s Grand National Trial was the result of being hampered and losing his rider. He was below form there, but that was his fifth start over a staying trip since the autumn, and he shaped as if needing a break.
He’s been freshened up since by Ian Williams, and his front-running style suits this track, where it is hard to come from off the pace.
It goes without saying that he will need to bounce back to his best to compete, but he impressed when winning over 3½m at Haydock in November in cheekpieces, and his subsequent defeats have cone in different headgear. He can outrun his odds if getting into his usual rhythm.
Sizing Codelco is a hard horse to catch right, but he shaped well in this race last year (still on the bridle when making a bad mistake at the 21st and unable to sustain his run, and he bounced back from a poor Cheltenham to bag a couple of valuable handicaps in the spring of 2017. Once again he comes here having flopped at Prestbury Park last month but is much fresher in other respects, and while the way he runs seems to depend on his mood, he’s certainly not overfaced here, and he will be competitive on his best form.
I’m not sure he really wants this far, so he appeals more as a place bet in any case, but I see no reason why he shouldn’t be the force of old. He is by far the riskiest of the trio, but that is reflected in his price.
Back the following for a place in the Scottish National (5pts on each)
- Back Blue Flight @ 7.0 or bigger
- Back Red Infantry @ 10.5 or bigger
- Back Sizing Codelco @ 16.0 or bigger